UNION BUDGET 2022-23 ~ QUICK FIRST TAKE
Capex Emphasis and Thrust continues on scale
We continue to be fundamentally cautious and bottom up very selective in Stock Selection
Our Finance Minister Mrs Nirmala Sitharaman made her shortest speech at 1 hour and 31 minutes rising to present the Union Budget at 11 am .Her longest was a marathon 2 hours and 42 minutes in 2020 which eclipsed her 2019 time of 2 hours and 17 min.Last year the length was 1 hour 40 min
TOP THREE Announcements in our first quick take after hearing her .The Fine Print is awaited
CAPEX ~ CAPEX Outlay scaled up by 35.4 % to Rs 7.5 lakh crores and 2.9% of GDP in 2022-23.Effective CAPEX will be Rs 10.68 lakh crores or 4.1% of GDP
Our View ~ Huge infrastructure growth impetus across core sectors and expect Credit Offtake to take off again.Yet funding such CAPEX from increased government borrowings raises its own concerns .Ideally Tax Revenues need to fund this but these appear to be muted growth despite record January 2022 GST Collection of Rs 1.41 lakh crores. Such CAPEX Spend does support higher employment opportunities and Export Promotion and the Atma Nirbhar Thrust that will take India to a US $ 5 Trillion Economy by 2025 especially if the 9.2% GDP Growth rate estimated for 2022-23 is not only achieved but sustained for the coming three years .We will have to live with high Fiscal Deficits for now. Revised Estimate for 2021-22 is marginally higher at 6.9% of GDP while estimated for 2022-23 is 6.4% of GDP
DIRECT TAX ~ An Assessee can now file an updated return within two years at the end of the Assessment Year to include any undisclosed income in earlier return and pay the Tax on it
Our View ~ A step towards better voluntary compliance and lesser litigation ~ can be misused though
VIRTUAL DIGITAL ASSETS ~ Our Central Bank ,the Reserve Bank of India will launch a Digital Rupee in 2022-23 based on blockchain and other technologies .Virtual Digital Assets (read as Cryptos) will be taxed at 30% on transfer with a 1% TDS over a minimum threshold .Any Loss cannot be set off against gains or income from any other Assets. If gifted ,the recipient will be taxed
Our View ~ Some Clarity now on Taxation of Cryptos and a hint that they will not be banned totally
Some other announcements ~ The much awaited LIC IPO is to be done shortly to be followed by a few more PSU Disinvestment exercises in 2022-23 ~ 25000 kms are to be added to National Highways in 2022-23
Expect the Pre-Budget and ongoing rally during the speech that took the Sensex up 1000 points past 59000 at one point to now shed off some of the gains for now.
We continue to be fundamentally cautious and bottom up very selective in Stock Selection
Cheers,
Gaurav Parikh, Managing Director
[email protected] +9820162597
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