Manappuram Finance Ltd

 

Manappuram Finance Ltd
Finance (including NBFCs)

FV – Rs 2; 52wks H/L – 55.5/19.75; TTQ – 3.96 Lakhs; CMP (May 31, 2016) – Rs 53.5;

Market Cap – Rs 4500 Crs

Financials and Valuations for FY16 (Amt in Rs Crs unless specified)

 
Equity Capital

Net worth

Long Term
Debt

Total
Sales
PAT
BV
(Rs)

EPS (Rs)

P/E

Industry
P/E

P/BV

Promoter’s
Stake

Beta
Consolidated 168.24 2758 1600 2360 353 33 4.2 12.73 51.98 1.6 33.69 1.13
Standalone 168.24 2737 1115 2213 337 33 4.01 12.75 51.98 1.6 33.69 1.13

 

Valuation Parameters

  1. EV/EBITDA: 3.54
  2. EV/Share: Rs 65
  3. EV/Sale: 2.3
  4. Market Cap/ Sale: 1.89
  5. Debt to Equity: 0.58
  6. RoE: 12.8%
  • March quarter PAT stood at Rs 130.7 Crs on a consolidated basis, up by over 86.6% Q-o-Q. PAT for FY 16 was Rs 353 Crs, up by 30% Y-o-Y. The improvement came on the back of margin improvement due to a reduction in the cost of funds and improvement in yields, along with a stronger than expected growth in overall AUM. Cost of funds came‐off 10 bps Q-o-Q and 150 bps Y-o-Y due to a rating upgrade earlier in the year and lower base rates during the year. Yield has improved 190 bps Y-o-Y as Manappuram has shifted to shorter duration loans because of which the quantum of auction was lower. Auctions this quarter stood just at Rs 190 Crs (1.9% of gold AUM) aided by higher gold prices.
  • The company’s consolidated assets under management also rose to Rs 11433 Crs from Rs 9593 Crs recorded in the previous fiscal year.
  • The recent diversification into new business areas has gained further traction with new businesses now contributing about 12% of its consolidated AUM. Microfinance subsidiary, Asirvad Microfinance Pvt Ltd, had ended the year with an AUM of Rs 82 Crs, representing a growth of 210% over Rs 322 Crs.
  • Commercial vehicle loans and mortgage-based finance (housing loans and loans against property) have contributed Rs 52 Crs to the total AUM. Their contribution in FY 15 was Rs 44.80 Crs.
  • Manappuram Finance fiscal net profit up 30%
  • NBFCs including Manappuram Finance are now targeting short tenure (3 to 6 months) gold loans instead of earlier one year duration loans. By focusing on short-term loans, auction of gold deposited by defaulting customers could come down. And, this helps in protecting margins. Apart from protecting margins, these shorter duration gold loans also help companies by shielding them against the volatility in gold prices that get more pronounced in longer duration loans. NBFCs, banks focus on shorter tenure gold loans to boost margins
  • The company is now looking at increasing its non-loan portfolio. It is aiming at organic and inorganic growth to grow the non-gold loan business, now Rs 1300 Crs. In the next two to three years, it aims to grow it to Rs 4000 Crs. This is being done to reduce concentration risk from gold loans. The Reserve Bank of India has also said it wants large companies to diversify their portfolio, as a single business will lead to this risk. Manappuram Finance looks at inorganic growth to diversify business

 

Bulk Deals:

Date Client Transaction Quantity Traded Price (Rs)
26-Nov-2015 SMALL CAP WORLD FUND INC SELL 8550000 22.30
26-Nov-2015 SMALL CAP WORLD FUND INC SELL 8763979 22.31
15-Sep-2015 WF ASIAN RECONNAISSANCE FUND LTD BUY 14700000 24.61
15-Sep-2015 BEAVER INVESTMENT HOLDINGS SELL 12803803 24.55
11-Sep-2015 ASHISH DHAWAN BUY 9004871 20.20
11-Sep-2015 SMALL CAP WORLD FND INC SELL 14673614 20.23

 

Block Deals:

Date Exchange Quantity Price (Rs) Value (Rs Crs) Time
13-05-2016 NSE 1108092 50.25 5.57 14:29
11-05-2016 NSE 1000445 41.45 4.15 10:40
02-03-2016 NSE 1500339 31.75 4.76 11:53
24-02-2016 NSE 652451 30.70 2 13:49
19-02-2016 NSE 2465727 31.50 7.77 13:18
19-02-2016 NSE 1690592 31.35 5.3 15:22
02-02-2016 BSE 2194355 29.05 6.37 13:01
02-02-2016 NSE 2003749 29.05 5.82 12:31
01-02-2016 NSE 858631 28.35 2.43 14:15
29-01-2016 NSE 2501236 28.35 7.09 10:38
26-11-2015 NSE 4728105 22.30 10.54 11:51
26-11-2015 BSE 8551000 22.30 19.07 11:51
26-11-2015 NSE 4037024 22.65 9.14 11:51
24-11-2015 BSE 952082 22.70 2.16 09:36
04-11-2015 NSE 2000000 23.80 4.76 13:45
04-11-2015 BSE 3500000 23.80 8.33 13:45
30-09-2015 NSE 1000200 24.00 2.4 10:26
22-09-2015 BSE 1051345 23.65 2.49 12:02
15-09-2015 BSE 4110917 25.00 10.28 11:09
15-09-2015 NSE 1200000 24.75 2.97 14:32
15-09-2015 NSE 738950 25.30 1.87 13:18
15-09-2015 NSE 1800022 24.70 4.45 12:27
15-09-2015 NSE 7701659 24.60 18.95 11:51
15-09-2015 NSE 3956068 24.60 9.73 11:09
15-09-2015 NSE 1013880 24.35 2.47 11:12
11-09-2015 NSE 4884641 20.20 9.87 11:12
11-09-2015 NSE 1987265 20.20 4.01 11:11
13-08-2015 NSE 701727 23.25 1.63 14:01
29-07-2015 BSE 900000 26.15 2.35 10:54
28-02-2015 NSE 2369136 34.75 8.23 15:18
19-01-2015 NSE 1000000 33.80 3.38 14:55

 

Overview:

  • Manappuram Finance Limited is a non-banking financial company (NBFC).
  • The Company provides a range of fund based and fee based services including gold loans, money exchange facilities, and others. It is also engaged in the housing finance owing to low loan defaults.
  • It provides customers with credit primarily against their used gold jewellers.
  • The Company’s business areas include gold loan, money transfer, housing finance and foreign exchange.
  • It provides higher amount of loans depending upon the purity, net weight of the gold.
  • The money transfer service is available in all the branches.
  • The Company acts as a money changer, undertaking currency exchanges and sale of travellers’ cheques for a variety of purposes. It operates through 3,293 branches spread across the country.

Housing Finance: Manappuram Finance acquired Milestone Home Finance Company Pvt. Ltd. (Milestone), a company possessing a valid Certificate of Registration from National Housing Bank, as a wholly- owned subsidiary company. Subsequently, the name of company was changed to Manappuram Home Finance Pvt Ltd in September 2014.

Microfinance: Manappuram Finance acquired 85% stake in Asirvad Microfinance Private Limited. Asirvad Microfinance is an 8-year old NBFC – MFI (Non banking financial company – Microfinance Institution) headquartered in Tamil Nadu with operations in the states of Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Karnataka.

Management:

  • Mr V P Nandakumar is the MD and CEO

 

Major Non – Promoter Holdings:

Sr No. Major Non-Promoter % Stake
1 DSP Blackrock Micro Cap Fund 2.61
2 Mousseganesh Limited 1.2
3 BRIC II Mauritius Trading 1.54
4 WF Asian Reconnaissance Fund Limited 4.53
5 Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) PTE. 1.74
6 Baring India Private Equity Fund III Listed Invest 9.43
7 Baring India Private Equity Fund II Limited 3.14
8 Merrill Lynch Capital Markets Espana 1.15
9 Ashish Dhawan 2.91

 

Financial Trends ~ Amt in Rs Crs

Particulars FY 16 FY 15 FY 14 FY 13 FY 12 FY 11
Consolidated Standalone Consolidated Standalone Consolidated Standalone Standalone Standalone Standalone
Equity Paid Up 168.24 168.24 168.24 168.24 168.24 168.24 168.24 168.23* 83.38
Networth 2758 2737 2633 2627 2324 2492 2443 2381 1924
Long Term Debt 1600 1115 1642 1550 1455 1455 1361 1072 4871
Total Sales 2360 2213 1986 1976 2100 2100 2217 2616 418
PAT 353 337 271 271 226 226 208 591 283
EPS (Rs) 4.20 4.01 3.23 3.22 2.69 2.69 2.48 7.03 3.36
Book Value (Rs) 33 33 31 31 28 30 29 28 23

 

  • *Note that ~ In FY 12, Company had issued 1:1 bonus shares which resulted in the increase of shares by 416874188 number of equity shares. Also, the Company issued 7404760 shares to its employees under the ESOP 2009 scheme of the Company, resulting in the paid up share capital increasing to Rs 1682306272 in FY 12.
  • The fall in profits in FY 13 was on account of under-recovery of interest amounting to Rs 284 Crs on a specific pool of its portfolio that was booked during the latter half of FY12. The Company also made additional provision amounting to Rs 51 Crs being the reversal of interest booked in FY12. The Company has faced a higher incidence of defaults in this pool after it began realigning its portfolio under the new loan to value (LTV) regime brought into effect in March 2012.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Blue Star Ltd

Blue Star Ltd
Consumer Electronics
FV – Rs 2; 52wks H/L –444/306.1; TTQ – 5 K; CMP – Rs 416 (As On May 31st 2016; 11.00);                                  
Market Cap – Rs 3742 Crs

Consolidated Financials and Valuations for FY16 (Amt in Rs Crs unless specified)


Equity Capital

Net worth
Long Term Debt
Total  
Sales
PAT
BV
(Rs)

EPS (Rs)

P/E

Industry P/E

P/BV

Promoter’s
Stake
Beta
17.99 663 18 3770 108.38 74 12.05 34.5 56.34 5.6 39.46 1.18

 

Standalone Financials and Valuations for Q4 FY16


Equity Capital

Net worth

Total  
Sales
PAT
BV
(Rs)

TTM EPS (Rs)

TTM P/E

Industry P/E

P/BV

Promoter’s
Stake
Beta
17.99 846 1103 71.72 94 8 52 56.34 4.4 39.46 1.18

 

Valuation Parameters:

  1. Long Term Debt to Equity – 0.03
  2. ROE % – 16.35
  3. Market Cap/Sales – 1

Key Updates:

  • Blue Star launches Inverter Room ACs with anti-corrosive copper condensers for Maldives.

http://www.equitybulls.com/admin/news2006/news_det.asp?id=186302

  • Blue Star sold the 4.9 % stake Vigilant Applications to AA Management for a total sum of £220,000.

https://www.insidermedia.com/insider/southeast/blue-star-sells-vigilant-applications-stake

  • Blue Star becomes 7th Indian company to achieve Verafirm Certification by BSA.

http://www.indiainfoline.com/article/news-business/blue-star-becomes-7th-indian-company-to-achieve-verafirm-certification-by-bsa-116051600218_1.html

 

Overview:

  • Blue Star Ltd is an air-conditioning and commercial refrigeration company.
  • The Company is also engaged in the business of plumbing and firefighting, IT services and into distribution and maintenance of imported professional electronics and industrial systems.
  • The Company’s segments include Electro Mechanical Projects and Packaged Air-conditioning Systems, and Cooling Products.
  • The Electro Mechanical Projects and Packaged Air-conditioning Systems segment is engaged in the design, manufacturing, installation, commissioning and maintenance of central air-conditioning plants, packaged/ducted systems and variable refrigerant flow (VRF) systems, as well as contracting services in electrification, plumbing and fire-fighting. It also provides after-sales services.
  • The Company offers a range of room air conditioners for both residential, as well as commercial applications.
  • It also manufactures and markets commercial refrigeration products and cold chain equipment.
  • Blue Star exports its products to the Middle East, Africa, SAARC and ASEAN countries.

 

      Management:

  • Ashok M Advani – Chairman
  • Satish Jamdar – MD
  • Neeraj  Basur – CFO

The Equity Capital is @ Rs  Crs consisting of 89936105 equity Shares of FV Rs 2 currently held as under

 

0.67% Of the Promoter’s Holding is pledged.

 

Major Non-Promoter Holdings:

Sr.No Non – Promoters No. of Shares held % of shares held
1 HDFC Trustee Company Ltd – HDFC Mid Capopp 6995826 7.78
2 Saif Advisor Mauritius Ltd A/C Saif India IV FII 4731983 5.26
3 Reliance Capital Trustee Co. Ltd A/c Relainceequ 3340148 3.71
4 ICICI Prudential Value Dissovery Fund 2495911 2.78
5 UTI Infrastructure Fund 1335000 1.48
6 The Oriental Insurance Company Ltd 912559 1.01
7 L and T Mutual Fund Trustee Ltd L And T Tax Adv 934711 1.04
Total 20746138 23.07

 

 

Consolidated Financial Trends (In Rs. Crs) :

Particulars FY16 FY15 FY14 FY13 FY12 FY11
Equity Paid Up 17.99 17.99 17.99 17.99 17.99 17.99
Networth 663 456 461 401 395 511
Total Debt 363 397 479 422 367 445
Net Sales 3770 3190 2978 2960 2843 3013
Other Income 44 8 63 36 23 32
PAT 108.38 54.18 77.54 39.07 -105.1 160.97
Book Value (Rs) 74 51 51 45 44 57
EPS (Rs) 12.0 6.0 8.6 4.3 -11.7 17.9

Consequent to amalgamation and subsequent sale of IT business, the Company has recorded a net gain of Rs 46.1 Crs in consolidated results which is disclosed in Exceptional item In the Profit & Loss statement.

APL Apollo Tubes Ltd

APL Apollo Tubes Ltd
Manufacture of Infrastructure Products
FV – Rs 10; 52wks H/L – 899/367; TTQ – 2389; CMP (May 30, 2016) – Rs 888;
Market Cap – Rs 2081 Crs

Consolidated Financials and Valuations for 9MFY16 (Amt in Rs Crs unless specified)


Equity
 Capital

Net worth

Long Term
Debt*

Total  
Sales
PAT
BV 
(Rs)

TTM
EPS (Rs)

TTM
P/E

Industry 
P/E

P/BV

Promoter’s
Stake

Beta
23.44 545 231 2929 73 232 34.02 25.93 24.35 3 40.64 1.29

 

Consolidated Financials and Valuations for FY15 (Amt in Rs Crs unless specified)


Equity Capital

Net worth

Long Term
Debt

Total  
Sales
PAT
BV 
(Rs)

EPS 
(Rs)

P/E

P/BV
23.44 472 142 3014 64 201 27.3 32.3 4.34

 

The share price has increased by 125% since we last covered the scrip on March 13, 2015 (Rs 394 per share).

It has moved up by 30% in the last two months from Rs 687 (30/3/16) to Rs 888 (30/5/16).

 

Recent Updates

  • A new plant has been set up at Raipur, Chhattisgarh with total capital outlay upto Rs 75 Crs. The plant will manufacture galvanized steel tubes, hollow section and galvanized sheets having a total capacity of 60000 MTPA. The Company expects to commence operations at Raipur plant by Q1 of FY18.

Bulk Deals

Date Client Transaction Quantity Traded Price (Rs)
17-Dec-2015 INTEGRATED MASTER SECURITIES PRIVATE LIMITED BUY 196450 769.51
17-Dec-2015 R.B.A. FINANCE& INVESTMENT CO. BUY 235000 752.50
17-Dec-2015 SANJAY GUPTA HUF SELL 210000 752.58
17-Dec-2015 SANJAY GUPTA SELL 196450 769.49
17-Dec-2015 INTEGRATED MASTER SECURITIES PRIVATE LIMITED SELL 196450 752.35
11-Dec-2015 FIL INVESTMENTS (MAURITIUS) LIMITED SELL 157409 613.83
06-Apr-2015 HDFC MUTUAL FUND BUY 160000 421.00
31-Mar-2015 HDFC MF Prudence Fund BUY 160371 392.00
10-Mar-2015 EMBLEM FII SELL 200000 365.15
10-Mar-2015 HDFC MUTUAL FUND BUY 196000 365.05
03-Mar-2015 HDFC M F A/C HDFC GROWTH FUND BUY 568500 350.65
03-Mar-2015 APOLLO PIPES LIMITED SELL 300000 350.02

 

 

 

Block Deals

Date Exchange Quantity Price Value(Cr) Time
17-12-2015 BSE 130053 753.50 9.8 12:18
17-12-2015 BSE 96496 770.25 7.43 12:29
17-12-2015 BSE 100000 769.00 7.69 12:29
17-12-2015 BSE 80000 752.50 6.02 12:18
17-12-2015 BSE 130000 752.00 9.78 12:18
16-12-2015 BSE 85000 685.50 5.83 10:55
11-12-2015 NSE 100678 610.00 6.14 13:04
11-12-2015 BSE 100585 610.00 6.14 13:04
11-12-2015 BSE 100000 610.00 6.1 10:20
10-12-2015 NSE 95747 590.00 5.65 14:32
09-12-2015 BSE 115000 580.00 6.67 15:17
09-12-2015 NSE 89000 580.00 5.16 14:43
10-03-2015 BSE 200000 365.00 7.3 11:05
03-03-2015 NSE 832875 355.00 29.57 14:56

 

Updates when the stock was last covered on March 13, 2015:

  • HDFC Mutual Fund bought 196000 equity shares close to about 0.83% stake in APL Apollo Tubes on March 10, 2015 ~ APL Apollo Tubes hits record high; HDFC MF buys shares
  • ICRA upgraded APL Apollo Tubes for long – term from [ICRA]A- to [ICRA]A and reaffirmed the short-term rating of [ICRA]A1 for Company’s credit facility.
  • The Company launched a new product ~ steel door frames ~ which has a double life expectancy as compared to wooden door frames and costs 40% less. The product launch is in line with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s affordable housing program. The Company has also taken the patent from the Patent Office of Govt. of India. ~ BSE Extracts

 

Overview

  • APL Apollo Tubes Ltd is engaged in manufacturing and exporting of steel pipes and tubes. It was incorporated in the year 1986 and is headquartered in Delhi.
  • It operates in the steel tubes and pipes market specifically in the Welded Segment.
  • The Company manufactures a range of steel products ERW black tubes and pipes, such as hot-dipped galvanized and pre-galvanized tubes, hollow sections and structural. It is the only player manufacturing black, galvanized and pre-galvanized products.
  • The current capacity of APL Apollo is about 1.05 million tonnes.
  • The Company markets its product under the brand APL Apollo which covers MS Black, G.I. round pipes and hollow sections both in rectangular and square quality rolled on high frequency induct weld (HFIW) mills.
  • The Company focuses on supplying tubes for applications in the engineering sector, idler tubes for conveyors, propeller shaft tubes and bobbin tubes for textile industry with applications where high precision diameter is required and other high rotational applications.
  • The Company also manufactures CPVC pipes, uPVC pipes, uPVC SWR Drainage system, uPVC plumbing system, well casing and screen pipes and HDPE drip irrigation system, among others.
  • It serves Metal Engineering & Fabrication, Electric Poles, Ports, Railways, Aviation, Oil & Gas, Metros, Solar Power, Automobile sectors.
  • It has 300 stock keeping units (SKUs), largest in the industry. It has 6 manufacturing units including a new greenfield plant in Hosur, Tamil Nadu. It is also acquiring two units in Bangalore and Mumbai. Its plant in Hosur is close to JSW Steel, the market it serves.
  • The Company has three wholly-owned subsidiaries ~ Shri Lakshmi Metal Udyog Limited, Lloyds Line Pipes Limited and Apollo Metalex Private Limited.
  • Hollow sections form 35% of the revenue mix while MS-Black and Pre-galvanized contribute 25% each and the rest comes from Galvanized tubes. From a margin perspective, pre-galvanized tubes have the highest margin of about 13-15% while MS-Black have more modest margins in the region of 4-6%

 

Key Growth Drivers for the Steel industry:

  1. Smart Cities
  2. Ganga Action Plan
  3. Agriculture
  4. Infrastructure Buildout

 

Equity Unquoted Investments as on March 31, 2014:

Investment Company Name No of Equity Shares Cost of Investments
(Rs Crs)
Apollo Metalex Pvt Ltd 2711100 7.21
Shri Lakshmi Metal Udyog Ltd 5895000 36.3
Lloyds Line Pipes Ltd 20000000 33.25
Total 76.76

 

Clientele:

  • Infrastructure: Delhi Metro, Adani Group, Gammon, L&T, Afcons and B L Kashyap.
  • Water: Jain Irrigation
  • Corporates: Unicer, TATA
  • Power & Gas: BHEL, Gujarat Gas, HP, IGL, Moser Baer, Suzlon, BP

 

Management:

  • Sanjay Gupta is the CMD

 

 Shareholding Pattern as on March 31, 2016

The Equity Capital is @ Rs 23.44 Crs consisting of 23438636 Equity Shares of FV Rs 10 currently held as under

None of the promoters’ holding is pledged

Sr No Major Non-Promoter % Stake
1 IDFC Premier Equity Fund 6.77
2 DSP Blackrock Micro Cap Fund 4.95
3 HDFC Trustee Company Limited – HDFC Prudence 4.97
4 Narendra Kumar Agarwal 2.29
5 Abha Bhanshali 1.14
6 Ashish Kacholia 2.13
7 Sameer Mahendra Sampat 2.38

 

Share Price Trend

 

Consolidated Financial Trend ~ Amt in Rs Crs

Particulars FY15 FY14 FY13 FY12 FY11 FY10
Equity Paid Up 23.44 23.44* 22.32** 21.3 20.3 20.3
Networth 472 425 368 299 237 191
Total Debt 434 505 445 311 239 157
Net Sales 3014 2569 2008 1392 905 614
PAT 64 59 69 49 43 30
Book Value (Rs) 201 181 157 128 101 81
EPS (Rs) 27.20 25.17 29.44 20.90 18.34 12.8

 

Net Sales grew at a CAGR of 30.37% while PAT grew at a CAGR of 13.46% over the last six years. Net worth has grown at a CAGR of 16.27% over the same period.

  • *Note that ~ On August 13, 2013, the Company allotted 1115000 Equity Shares having a FV of Rs 10 each to Mr. Ashok Kumar Gupta, a person considered as promoter upon conversion of equal number of warrants.
  • The Company had allotted 1500000 warrants to Mr. Ashok Kumar Gupta on a preferential basis on February 14, 2012 at a price of Rs 145 each wherein each warrant entitled Mr. Ashok Kumar Gupta to subscribe for one Equity Share of the Company.
  • Out of these fifteen lakhs warrants, 385000 warrants were converted in to equity shares on March 23, 2013. The Equity share capital thus increased from Rs 22.32 Crs to Rs 23.44 Crs.
  • In FY14, the fall in profit margin was due to sluggish demand scenario in the construction and infrastructure sector. Also the Company was not able to pass on the steel price hike fully to consumers in the later part of FY14.

 

Relaxo Footwears Ltd


Relaxo Footwears Ltd
Footwear
FV – Rs 1; 52wks H/L –614.55/360; TTQ – 2 K; CMP – Rs 460 (As On May 24 2016; 11:30) ;

Market Cap – Rs 5521 Crs

Standalone Financials and Valuations for Q4 FY16 (Amt in Rs.Crs unless specified)


Equity Capital

Net worth
Long Term Debt
Total
Sales
PAT
BV
(Rs)

TTM EPS (Rs)

TTM P/E

Industry P/E

P/BV

Promoter’s
Stake
Beta
12 480 113 485 32.82 40 2.74 167.8 21.14 11.5 74.98 1.03

 

Standalone Financials and Valuations for FY16 (Amt in Rs Crs unless specified)


Equity Capital

Net worth
Long Term Debt
Total
Sales
PAT
BV
(Rs)

EPS (Rs)

P/E

P/BV
Beta
12 480 113 1713 120.28 40 10.02 45.9 11.5 1.03

In 2013 there was a stock split from Rs.5 to Rs.1 and on 1/7/2015 the company issues bonus of 1:1 shares held on a face value of Rs.1 each.

The company added 8 stores in Q4 FY16 with a total of 250 retail stores as of 31/3/2016.

The company is aiming for a double-digit growth in the next quarter, with focus on sales transformation and better connection with retailers. http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/results-boardroom/aiming-for-double-digit-growthnext-quarter-relaxo-footwear_6687881.html

On Monday, April 4, 2016, Jwalamukhi Investment Holdings, a unit of WestBridge, purchased 1.87 million equity shares representing 1.55% of total equity of Relaxo Footwears for about Rs 80 crore through block deal on NSE. http://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/footwear-stocks-extend-rally-relaxo-footwear-surges-over-30-in-two-days-116040500196_1.html

VLS Finance sold 1.77 million shares at Rs 425 per share, data shows. VLS Finance (6.71%) and VLS Securities (6.79%) collectively held 13.5% stake in Relaxo Footwears at the end of December 2015 quarter.

This quarter was subdued mainly due to general market slowdown and wage hike in Haryana and statutory bonus ceiling impacted the bottom line. The employee benefit cost rose up by 19.6% at Rs.45.7 Crs.

The company introduced approximately 200 designs last year, spread across categories and brands.

As on 31st March, 2015 the total no of employees of the Company are 4655 against 3980 on 31st March, 2014.

Overview:

  • Relaxo Footwears Ltd is engaged in the business of manufacturing and trading footwear and articles.
  • The company’s brands include Hawaii, Flite, Sparx, Schoolmate, Elena and Casualz.
  • Its sparx range includes sports shoes, Sandals and SFGs range.
  • Its Schoolmate brand consists of a range of school shoes for boys and girls. Its Hawaii brand provides slipper.
  • Its Flite brand provides women’s footwear.
  • Its manufacturing facilities are located at Bahadurgarh, Haryana; Bhiwadi; Rajasthan, and Haridwar, Uttarakhand.
Particulars 2014-15 2013-14 2012-13 2011-12 2010-11
No. of pairs sold (in Crs) 12.28 10.78 10.02 9.25 8.66
YOY growth (%) 13.9 7.6 8.3 6.8  

 

Industry Updates:

95% of the footwear industry in India is driven by domestic sales with approximately 5 % coming from exports.

India is a big market with a lot of potential with a focus for growth. However, the company plans to be relevant in international markets by building their own brand.

Management:

  • Ramesh Dua is the Managing Director of the company.
  • Susuhil Batra is the CFO of the company.

Major Non-Promoter Holdings:

Non – Promoters No. of shares held % of shares held
SBI Magnum Global Fund 1700000 1.42
Kotak Mahindra (International) Ltd 1670466 1.39
VLS Finance Ltd 8057760 6.71
VLS Securities Ltd 8150000 6.79

 


Standalone Financial Trends (In Rs.Crs):

Particulars FY16 FY15 FY14 FY13 FY12 FY11
Equity Paid Up 12 6 6 6 6 6
Networth 480 368 277 214 172 135
Total Debt 203 211 162 205 146 156
Net Sales 1713 1481 1215 1011 866 692
Other Income 9 0.4 2 1 1 0.5
PAT 120.28 103.05 65.64 44.81 39.91 26.79
Book Value (Rs) 40 61 46 36 29 23
EPS (Rs) 10.02 17.18 10.94 7.47 6.65 4.47

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Genus Power Infrastructure Ltd

Genus Power Infrastructure Ltd
Other Electrical Equipment Products
FV – Rs 1; 52wks H/L –62.5/21.75; TTQ – 1.04 Lacs; CMP – Rs 52.65 (As On May 24 2016; 15:30) ;

Market Cap – Rs 1352.09 Crs

Standalone Financials and Valuations for 9Months FY16 (Amt in Rs.Crs unless specified)


Equity Capital

Net worth
Long Term Debt
Total
Sales
PAT
BV
(Rs)

TTM EPS (Rs)

TTM P/E

Industry P/E

P/BV

Promoter’s
Stake
Beta
25.67 598 7 649 64.68 23 3.45 15.3 59.33 2.3 50.58 1.60

 

Standalone Financials and Valuations for FY15 (Amt in Rs Crs unless specified)


Equity Capital

Net worth
Long Term Debt
Total
Sales
PAT
BV
(Rs)

EPS (Rs)

P/E

P/BV
Beta
25.67 487 17 927 53.12 19 2.07 25.4 2.8 1.60

Overview:

  • Genus Power Infrastructures Ltd is an integral part of the US $400 million Kailash group and is engaged in manufacturing/providing metering and metering solutions and power backup.
  • The Company also undertakes engineering, construction and contracts on turnkey basis.
  • The Company’s metering solutions include a range of electricity meters, such as multi-functional single phase and three phase meters, current transformer (CT)-operated meters, availability based tariff (ABT) and grid meters, distribution transformer (DT) meters, pre-payment meters and smart meters, among others.
  • The power back-up systems and solar solutions include uninterruptible power supply (UPS) and inverters, such as home UPS, static UPS, online UPS, high capacity inverters, solar inverters, batteries and solar power packs.
  • The engineering construction and contracts division undertakes turnkey power projects, such as sub-station erection up to 420 kilovolts (kV), laying up of transmission and distribution lines, rural electrification, switchyards and network refurbishment.

Genus has installed around 31 million electronic energy meters across the country.

During the year the company has produced around 5.26 million meters and installed around 4.90 million meters.

 

Management:

  • Rajendra Kumar Agarwal – CEO & MD
  • Ishwar Chand Agarwal – Chairman

The Equity Capital is @ Rs 25.67 Crs consisting of 256807850 equity Shares of FV Rs 1 currently held as under


None of the Promoter’s Holding is Pledged.

Major Non-Promoter Holdings:

Non – Promoters No. of shares held % shares held
UTI – Dual Advantage Fixed Term Fund 3380146 1.32
Reliance Capital Trustee Co. 8662000 3.37
Narendra Kumar Agarwal 2734878 1.06
Vallabh Roopchand Bhansali 2985700 1.16
Mondip Kumar Tamuly 27543850 10.73
Ashish Kacholia 4566252 1.78
Rajesh Bothra 6150600 2.4
UNO Metals Ltd 2730000 1.06

 

 

Standalone Financial Trends (In Rs.Crs):

Particulars FY15 FY14 FY13 FY12 FY11
Equity Paid Up 25.67 25.67 15.89 15.89 15.19
Networth 487 434 488 446 371
Total Debt 350 303 279 318 298
Net Sales 927 775 771 707 716
Other Income 12 9 5 1 2
PAT 53.12 60.47 44.57 66.1 61.08
Book Value (Rs) 19 17 31 28 24
EPS (Rs) 2.07 2.36 2.80 4.16 4.02

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Megasoft Ltd

Megasoft Ltd
IT Software Products

FV – Rs 10; 52wks H/L – 14/4; TTQ – 85000; CMP (May 24, 2016) – Rs 9.76;

Market Cap – Rs 43 Crs

Consolidated Financials and Valuations for 9MFY16 (Amt in Rs Crs unless specified)


Equity Capital

Net worth

Long Term
Debt*

Total
Sales
PAT
BV
(Rs)

TTM EPS (Rs)

TTM
P/E

Industry
P/E

P/BV

Promoter’s
Stake

Beta
44.27 164 43 (5.27) 37 (0.94) 20.44 3.79 7.24 1.51

*As of September 2015

Consolidated Financials and Valuations for 15 Months ended FY15 (Amt in Rs Crs unless specified)


Equity Capital

Net worth

Long Term
Debt

Total
Sales
PAT
BV
(Rs)

EPS (Rs)

P/E

P/BV
44.27 170 101 0.73 38 0.16 61 0.26

 

  • The company lost its biggest customer contract from Q3 of 2013, resulted in lower revenues and EBITDA in the FY15.
  • The share price has moved up by 45.67% in the last two months from Rs 6.7 (24/3/2016) to Rs 9.76 (24/5/2016). However, the stock has breached Lower Circuit three times in the last one week.
  • Company’s top five clients contribute to more than 50% of the revenues.

Recent Updates

  • Megasoft was awarded a patent in Near Field Communication (NFC) technology in July 2015. The invention relates to a smart integration of dual architecture contactless SIM into mobile devices and describes the method of efficiently performing various financial transactions. The patent was filed in February 2010 and was awarded by the US Patent and Trademark Office in July this year.

Near field communication (NFC) is a set of communication protocols that enable two electronic devices, one of which is usually a portable device such as a Smartphone, to establish communication by bringing them within 4 cm (2 in) of each other ~ Wikipedia

  • In June 2015, the company was awarded patent pertaining to the method for performing authentication and service translation for Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs). The patented technology is at the core of the company’s XIUS Mobile Services Platform (MSP) and has been granted by the US Patent and Trademark Office.

mobile virtual network operator (MVNO), or mobile other licensed operator (MOLO), is a wireless communications services provider that does not own the wireless network infrastructure over which the MVNO provides services to its customers. An MVNO enters into a business agreement with a mobile network operator to obtain bulk access to network services at wholesale rates, and then sets retail prices independently. An MVNO may use its own customer service, billing support systems, marketing, and sales personnel, or it could employ the services of a mobile virtual network enabler (MVNE) ~ Wikipedia

Bulk Deals

Date Client Transaction Quantity Traded Price (Rs)
06-Apr-2016 ASHISH DHAWAN SELL 633037 6.69
15-Jan-2016 ASHISH DHAWAN SELL 233913 10.21
12-Jan-2016 MISHRA RAKESH BUY 246206 13.09
12-Jan-2016 ASHISH DHAWAN SELL 508943 13.09
12-Jan-2016 MISHRA RAKESH SELL 82644 13.52
08-Jan-2016 ASHISH DHAWAN SELL 469682 13.18
07-Jan-2016 ASHISH DHAWAN SELL 345074 13.00
30-Nov-2015 MISHRA RAKESH SELL 259000 7.25
10-Jul-2015 J P M S L A/C COPTHALL MAURITIUS INVESTMENT LTD SELL 271929 8.00
07-Jul-2015 J P M S L A/C COPTHALL MAURITIUS INVESTMENT LTD SELL 223158 8.03

 

Overview:

  • The Company is principally engaged in computer programming, consultancy and related activities. It was established in 1994. It operates in two key technology segments ~ Core network infrastructure and mobile payments.
  • The Company focuses on the telecom sector through its XIUS brand.
  • Through XIUS, the Company offers personalized and specialized services, including computer software design, computer systems analysis and systems integration, to bring solutions to its clients.
  • With Headquarters in the USA, XIUS offers solutions in the areas of mobile infrastructure and services, and mobile banking and payments.
  • Megasoft has offices in the US, Singapore, Malaysia and in Hyderabad & Chennai in India.
  • The company has filed 120 patents, with 35 awarded to date.
  • XIUS Infrastructure solutions process and manage in excess of 350 million calls a day and the mobile payments solutions manage over $US 1 billion worth of payment transactions monthly.
  • The company has received the title and has completed the registration formalities on May 23, 2015 for lands situated at Madhapur (0.75 acres) and Nanakramaguda, Hyderabad (acquired through amalgamation of VisualSoft Technologies Limited in 2006) allotted by TSIIC (previously APMC).
  • Out of 15.61 acres originally allotted at Nanakramguda, Hyderabad, as per the directions of Government of Telangana the Company surrendered an area of 7.29 acres and retained the balance land. The said land is located at Nanak Ram Guda abutting Hyderabad Financial District, which has become a centre for the back office operations of several premier Indian and global financial institutions. ~ Megasoft parts with land for Google campus
  • The company has started investing in new products ~ 4G LTE, NFV (Network Function Virtualisation), Predictive Analytics, Mobile based Payments Bank etc.

Management:

  • Mr  G. V  Kumar is the Managing Director & Compliance Officer

None of the promoter’s holding is pledged

Sr No. Major Non-Promoter % Stake
1 I Labs Venture Capital Fund 8.5
2 Srinivas Raju D 1.69
3 Rakesh Mishra 1.71
4 Satyavathi Dendukuri 1.89
5 Ashish Dhawan 2.65
6 Venkataraman Kumar Gandaravakottai 5.03
7 Godavari Greenlands Pvt Ltd 3.04
8 Sri Power Generation (India) Private Limited 4
9 Venturetech Solutions P Ltd 1.04

 

Consolidated Financial Trends ~ Amt in Rs Crs


Particulars

15 months ended March 2015

December ended
FY 13

December ended
FY 12

December ended
FY 11
Equity Paid Up 44.27 44.27 44.27 44.27
Networth 170* 211 214 214
Long Term Debt 0.01 0.14 0.22 0.32
Total Sales 101 106 115 150
PAT 0.73 2.69 1.17 17.5
EPS (Rs) 0.16 0.61 0.26 3.95
Book Value (Rs) 38 48 48 48

 

  • *Certain advances made by the wholly owned subsidiary company prior to 2007 have been set-off to retained earnings by that wholly owned subsidiary.
  • The Company lost its prepaid system contract with its largest customer by the end of 2011. The full year effect of this was felt in 2012, which resulted in a 22% decline in the revenues in FY 12 and further decline of 25% in revenues in FY 13.

 

R Systems International Ltd

R Systems International Ltd
IT Consulting & Software

FV – Re 1; 52wks H/L – 89/53; TTQ – 7736; CMP (May 23, 2016; 1.45 pm) – Rs 56.75;

Market Cap – Rs 720 Crs

Consolidated Financials and Valuations for Q1 FY16 (Amt in Rs Crs unless specified)


Equity Capital

Net worth

Long Term
Debt*

Total
Sales
PAT
BV
(Rs)

TTM
EPS (Rs)

TTM P/E

Industry
P/E

P/BV

Promoter’s
Stake

Beta
12.61 250 0.78 143 7.63 20 7.27 7.84 21.73 2.85 50.8 (0.02)

*As of December 31, 2015

Consolidated Financials and Valuations for December ended FY15 (Amt in Rs Crs unless specified)


Equity Capital

Net worth

Long Term
Debt

Total
Sales
PAT
BV
(Rs)

EPS (Rs)

P/E

P/BV
12.61 243 0.78 610 97.83 19 7.19 7.93 3.56


Company’s MD on his outlook about R Systems ~ ‘I am extremely positive about the outlook for your company. The USA economy is giving mixed signals now but I feel that over the years IT industry has learnt to live in uncertainty’

Valuation Parameters

  1. EV/EBITDA: 8.26
  2. EV/Share: Rs 50
  3. EV/Sale: 1.04
  4. Market Cap/ Sale: 1.18
  5. Debt to Equity: ~0
  1. RoI: 40.26%

Recent Updates

  • In its most recent Board Meeting held on April 30, 2015, the Board of Directors approved to Grant 150000 stock options at price of Rs 12.07 per option (i.e. the price at which the options were granted earlier on July 11, 2007) under existing R Systems International Limited Employee Stock Option Scheme 2007 as recommended by the Compensation Committee.
  • The Board has also approved opening a subsidiary company of Computaris International Limited, U.K. (wholly owned subsidiary of the Company) in Philippines.
  • In FY 15 , the Company issued 90,000 equity shares of Re 1 each at an exercise price of Rs 12.07 per share, pursuant to exercise of employee stock options under the R Systems International Limited Employee Stock Option Scheme 2007.

Other updates

  • In 2015, R Systems acquired IBIZ, a Microsoft gold channel partner having ERP and Business Intelligence competencies. IBIZ is having presence in South East Asia. It also acquired a relatively small but strategic telecom IT business in Europe from a renowned telecom operator.
  • On July 11, 2014, the Company had incorporated a wholly owned subsidiary in India ~ R Systems Products & Technologies Limited. It was later converted into R Systems Products & Technologies Private Limited (RSPTPL) on May 28, 2015. The shareholders of the Company by passing special resolution through postal ballot on September 23, 2014 had accorded necessary approval for transfer of the Company’s Indus Business Unit operated out of Pune and Chennai to RSPTPL.
  • The Company had entered into ‘Business Transfer Agreement’ (BTA) with RSPTPL on June 27, 2015 for the aforesaid transfer on a going concern basis by way of slump sale, for consideration of Rs 78.39 Crs to be discharged by RSPTPL through issuance of 60,000,003 equity shares of Re 1 each at a premium of Rs 6.227 per share and 35,026 compulsorily redeemable debentures of Rs 10000 each, on the terms and conditions agreed in BTA.
  • The Company also entered into Share Purchase Agreement (SPA) with BD Capital Partners Ltd. (BDC), a Mauritius based company on June 27, 2015 to sell 93% of its equity share in RSPTPL to BDC for a consideration of Rs 44.32 Crs. Subject to the satisfaction of certain conditions, BDC has also agreed to purchase the balance 7% equity shares for a consideration up to Rs.6.62 Crs. These conditions are under evaluation and yet to be concluded as at the quarter and year ended December 31, 2015. The Company will continue to hold the compulsorily redeemable debentures having an aggregate face value of Rs 35 Crs in accordance with the terms of the BTA. The closing (as defined in the agreements) under the BTA and SPA occurred on July 07, 2015.
  • The gain on sale of Indus Business Unit amounting to Rs 56.61 Crs (net of related expenses) and gain on sale of aforesaid equity share in RSPTPL amounting to Rs 2.87 Crs (net of related expenses) is disclosed as ‘Exceptional items’ in the financial results for the year ended December 31, 2015. The name of RSPTPL has been changed to Indus Software Technologies Private Limited w.e.f. August 19, 2015.
  • Accordingly, the aforesaid Indus Business Unit, being part of Information technology services and products segment, is considered as “Discontinuing Operations” till July 07, 2015.
  • ECnet Limited, a subsidiary of the Company has recorded an impairment loss amounting to Rs 1.2 Crs related to the certain intangible assets acquired in earlier years which is included under ‘Exceptional items’ for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2015.

Overview:

  • The Company is engaged in providing Information Technology (IT) Services and Solutions and IT-enabled Services to a range of global customers.
  • The Company operates in two segments: Information technology services and products, and Business process outsourcing services.
  • The Company’s portfolio of services include the following: Outsourced Product Development through Integrated Product Lifecycle Management (OPD-iPLM) services, application services, testing services, analytics services, business process outsourcing and knowledge process outsourcing services, and packaged services.
  • The Company provides its IT services and solutions to a variety of services to organizations in the healthcare industry, telecom and digital media, banking and finance, manufacturing and logistics, and government services.

Consolidated Revenue by Geography in 2015

“SEAC” ~ South East Asian Countries

Management:

  • Mr Satinder Singh Rekhi is the MD
  • Gen. Baldev Singh (Retd.) is the President and Senior Executive Director

None of the promoter’s holding is pledged

Major Non-Promoter % Stake
Bhavook Tripathi 36.7

Share Price Trend

Segment Results ~ Amt in Rs Crs


Particulars

Mar-16

Dec-15

Mar-15
December ended FY 15
Segment Revenue
Information Technology Services and Products 132 135 135 556
Business process outsourcing services 10 11 16 50
Total 142 146 151 607
Less: Elimination of Intersegment sales 0.48 0.47 0.44 1.81
Income from Operations 142 146 151 605
 
Segment Results before tax, interest and exceptional items
Information Technology Services and Products 12 15 15 68
Business process outsourcing services 1.15 1.01 -0.75 1.89
Total 13 16 14 70
Profit Before Tax 13 19 13 127
 
Capital Employed
Information Technology Services and Products 112 112 110 112
Business process outsourcing services 25 24 16 24
Unallocated corporate 118 107 81 107
Total capital employed 255 243 206 243

 

Dividend Trend With Ratios
  2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
Dividends (Rs) 4.9 5.85 18.5 19.6 2.4
Dividends % 490 585 185 196 24
Dividend Payout % 63.14 94.35 44.21 132.79 17.9
Dividend Yield% 6.44 6.80 4.93 8.71 1.56

 

Consolidated Financial Trends ~ Amt in Rs Crs

 Particulars FY 15 FY 14 FY 13 FY 12 FY 11
Equity Paid Up 12.61 12.67 12.59 12.45 12.24
Networth 243 213 232 195 199
Long Term Debt 0.78 0.63 0.88 0.34 0.38
Total Sales 610 653 597 466 411
PAT 97.83 78.13 52.69 18.36 16.51
EPS (Rs)(adj.)* 7.76 6.20 4.18 1.46 1.31
Book Value (Rs) (adj.)* 19 17 18 15 16

 

  • *There was a stock split in the year 20014 ~ sub-division of one equity share of face value of Rs 10 into ten equity shares of face value of Re 1 each fully paid up. The sub-division was effected as per record date of February 28, 2014.
  • Net profit for 2015 contains an exceptional profit of Rs 54 Crs as against Rs 18.5 Crs in 2014. The exceptional profit for 2015 mainly relates to sale of Indus product division as against sale of Europe BPO in 2014.
  • Revenues for FY15 decreased because of realignment of business activities and divestment of Indus Business Division.
  • In FY 15, the Company bought back 678155 fully paid-up equity shares of face value Re 1 each from the open market through stock exchanges.
  • Consolidated profits for FY14 include exceptional profit (net of tax) of Rs 18.5Crs. Out of this Rs 16.9 Crs pertains to profit on sale of Europe BPO Business and Rs 1.6 Crs on buy-back of shares of Computaris International Limited (a wholly owned subsidiary).
  • Reserves declined in FY14 because the Company paid hefty dividends ~ the Board had recommended a final dividend of Re 0.95 per equity share of face value of Re 1 each. This is in addition to four interim dividends aggregating to Rs 4.90 per equity share of face value of Re 1 each declared during the year ended December 31, 2014. Based on Companies Act, 2013 provisions applicable on the aforesaid dividends, the Company has not transferred any amount to the general reserves as the dividends has been declared and paid after April 1, 2014.
  • Proposed Dividend for FY14 was Rs 12.17 Crs which was in line with Rs 12.06 Crs of FY13. The Interim dividend in FY14 stood at Rs 62.43 Crs, way high from that of Rs 13.9 Crs in FY13.

 

 

100 Baggers by Christopher Mayer

Book Review for Outlook Business : 100 Baggers ~ by Christopher Mayer

Hey! my book review of Christopher Mayer’s “100 Baggers : Stocks that return 100-1 & how to find them” now features online on Outlook Business ....just also happily observed that Stock Select for 2016 published in December 2015 is trending  online as the No 1 most popular read on Outlook Business this year! ….surely because  Stock Select for 2015, Shemaroo @ Rs  159 given in December 2014 has rocketed over 100% inside a year & a half to current Rs 325+ levels …quite aware that if this year’s Select does not Click in the years ahead that ‘100 baggers’ will be read without the 1!

For want of Magazine Space the book review in print is a much truncated & edited version

For Full Flavour do check out my full review produced verbatim below :

Book Review by Gaurav A Parikh, MD of Jeena Scriptech Alpha Advisors Pvt Ltd

Book  : 100 Baggers ~ Stocks that return 100-to-1 & how to find them

Author : Christopher W Mayer

Publisher : Laissez Faire Books

Published in : 2015

“You make more money by sitting on your ass”

The author Chris Mayer could not have been more blunt in quoting Fund Manager, Martin Whitman

You need to Buy Right and Sit Tight for Years & Years & Years for that 100 Bagger. How do you Buy Right!? That’s the 100 Bagger Question Chris attempts to answer

 My own experience of 100 Baggers leads me to pat Chris on the back. To give you some sense  my three 100 Baggers Wipro, Mercator & Matrix Labs (now delisted as sold to Mylan) on which I had reinforced my credibility and standing had returned  respectively 38700% inside three years, 12000% inside 5 years and 10000 % inside 4.5 years. But sadly not all took the full ride! It’s like I confess at Training Workshops is akin to Boarding  a Train from Mumbai Central to Ahmedabad  but getting off at Borivali!

Make no mistake! This book by Chris Mayer is not  for those who seek  Instant 100-to -1 multi-bagger Success by investing in Stocks. Such 100-to-1 odds are available real time at Wealth Destroying Casinos round the world!

Chris dedicates his Book to Thomas W Phelps, the first author of  the first book on 100-Baggers

His inspiration to pen this book trails back a few years to  a Conference in 2011 where the great Investor, Chuck Akre  made mention in his address of having read in 1972 the  Barron’s Reviewed  Book ‘100 to 1 in the Stock Market’  by Thomas Phelps which focused on compounding capital. Legendary Investor Peter Lynch talked of ten baggers but here was Thomas Phelps talking of 100 baggers!

“The key is not only finding them, but keeping them”,“buy right and hold on”. These are nuggets Phelps summed up in his book. Phelps had added “ Investors too bite on what’s moving and can’t sit on a stock that isn’t going anywhere. They also lose patience with one that is moving against them. This causes them to make a lot of trades and never enjoy truly mammoth returns. Investors crave activity, and Wall Street is built on it. The media feeds it all, making it seem as if important things happen every day.”

Chris writes in first person and hopes his effort  “will energise & excite you about what’s possible”  & “you don’t need a MBA or a finance degree” 

100 Baggers is a metaphor for Big Winners with Chris detailing how to spot them early on rather than be invested in sleepy stocks that go nowhere. He does admit there is no magic formula and it’s not easy to screen potential winners.

Chris’s effort is an update on Phelps book of 1972 that covered  365 stocks from 1932 to 1971 that became 100 Baggers.Chris covers 365 100 Baggers too from 1962 to 2014 reinforcing  Phelps insights  as well as providing new ones  due to better computing horsepower

Interestingly Chris was not interested in success stories of Market Wizards like Jim Rogers, Paul Tudor  or even  Nicholas Darvas as he found their stories freakish and their process for enormous gains not replicable. In fact he thought one would be ruined if you followed them.He also realised that there were many ways to make money other than being just indoctrinated to the Benjamin Graham School of Value Investing best exemplified by living legend Warren Buffett

He is impressed by the great Investor, Chuck Akre who, far away from the frenetic pace of Wall Street,  follows the three legged stool approach of identifying companies that always have a historical compounded value of share at high rates and who’s highly skilled management always treats shareholders  as partners and most importantly & has a business that can reinvest free cash flows to earn sustained above average returns

The cornerstone philosophy  for identifying 100 Baggers is to Look for Companies with sustained High Returns on Capital. As Charlie Munger of Berkshire Hathaway  reiterates that even if you invest in such a Company at an expensive price it will work out fine. Conversely if you invest even at a discount in a Company consistently  returning low on capital there will not be much difference in your low returns. A PEG Ratio is a handy tool to gauge if Relative Valuations are in sync with Earnings Growth   

Over and above the cornerstone philosophy as above here are the 10 pearls of wisdom distilled from by Chris Mayer to invest in 100 Baggers

  1. Actively Look for 100 Baggers. Don’t be in Equity for Small Game. Look for the Elephant
  2. Look for Value added Topline Growth without any Equity Dilution or Margin Cuts that affects Return on Equity. Spend Time in understanding what you own rather than in following Forecasters and Market Analysts
  3. Don’t troll stocks  for 100 Baggers where PE is 5 or below or where Price is below Book. Great Ideas are not always Cheap
  4. Look for Economic Moats that allow the Company to consistently earn High Returns on Capital. Of course such Moats can be destroyed by disruptive technologies and business being created (Uber Car Hire Aggregators ) & 100 Baggers can also be where the Company has discovered a new oil field or there’s a new drug or invention involved. Facebook, Twitter & YouTube currently enjoy Network Moats that are difficult to crack
  5. Look for Small to Mid Caps as at some time large nos will work against you. Apple with a Market Cap of @ US $ 750 billion is already a 100 Bagger. From here to become a 100 Bagger again it needs to go to US $ 75 Trillion which is four times the US GDP. Unlikely
  6. Prefer Owner-Operator Companies as what’s good for them is good for you & vice-versa
  7. Adopt the Coffee Can Approach for a part of your portfolio to stay Invested for at least 10 years and not be tempted to sell or act frequently
  8. Create a Good Filter so as not to get distracted by daily Volatility and macro happenings that force you to act impulsively or in haste. Monster Beverages showed several monthly drops and rises in excess of 20% and yet kept the annual march upward. Such Volatility would have forced you to act and sell out and therefore miss out on a 100 Bagger Idea. Also the Index is not relevant to finding great stocks to invest in unless you’re buying the Index
  9. Good Luck Helps
  10. Buy Right & Sit Tight. Be a reluctant seller to allow the magic of compounding to do its work

Your Real Test of Conviction and Temperament comes when you’re holding a Stock that appears to have gone bad but then goes on to become a huge Bagger. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway  has been referred to in the Book to emphasise this and much more. It rose from US $8 in 1962 to US $80 in 1972. Impressed  and well advised by a friend, one picked it up at US $80 only to see it sink 53% to US $38 by 1975 while the S & P 500 had dropped only 14%. One would have dumped it and cursed the friend! However in 1976 it rose from US $38 to US $94 and by 1982 it was US $775 on it’s way to levels of over US $220000 now ! In fact from 1965 its risen 18000 fold with US $10000 becoming US $ 180 million in 50 years. Chris refers to a new interesting book by Elena Cherkova on this phenomenon & her reasoning that it was the 37.5% leverage on capital through Insurance Float that remains the key as it leads to effectively borrowing at negative rates of interest when Premiums exceed the Claims & the gains on investing the Float are yours to keep.       

Apple too was a 225 Bagger from it’s IPO in 1980 to 2012 but the ride was not easy. Those who held on had to suffer through a peak-to-trough loss of 80 percent — twice! The big move from 2008 came after a 60 percent drawdown. And there were several 40 percent drops.

Chris highlights the Coffee-can Portfolio Approach to protect the Investor from himself and to resist selling to accumulate fortunes and not be worried about ticker tapes and anxious moments watching  blinking stock terminals and ups and downs in the market and sweating day to day or month to month on your portfolio value. Pick a compelling story or Leader or Country and be willing to risk it all in your Coffee Can. Chris illustrates this with how in 1987 equal amounts were invested in hi-tech and bio-tech companies that held great potential. However 9 sunk and only Amgen returned 800 times the Investment made by 1994 but made up for more than the loss in the other 9!Chris though recommends not to experiment with start-ups but rather focus on well established companies with long runaways of growth and ability to keep compounding capital at high rates.

The Twin Engines are Growth in Business & Market Multples to become 100 Baggers. It’s also about what not to be buying like Utilities and Long Mature Companies like McDonalds and WallMart that will take a lot of years if at all they do become 100 Baggers.

Great Investors do not worry or spend time on what is unknowable or unpredictable like the Fed Rate or US $ or overall state of markets.They focus on great opportunities.

Chris’ study of the 365 Companies that became 100 Baggers from 1962 to 2014  revealed that they spread over several sectors from beverages to retailers to tech firms and took an average of 26 years to become 100 baggers. However the Fastest 10 that became 100 Baggers  did so from 4.2 years to 7.3 years were largely tech,media and pharmaceutical companies.  Also the Median Sales was US $ 170 m while Median Market Cap was US $ 500 m. Price to Sales Ratio was thus around 3 which is not really cheap. The myth that one needs to invest in a tiny company to get a 100 Bagger was dispelled as was not mandatory to look for low Price to Sale Ratio Companies to identify winners.

Chris covers several individual success stories.Monster Beverages stands out. It became a 100 Bagger inside 10 years by 2006 and a 700 Bagger by 2014.In fact one could have even bought it in 2004 and would have got a  100 Bagger. This was despite it being shunned by many well known analysts.One even recommended a Short in 2005 at US $ 6.31. It went on to hit US $ 26 inside a year! One was best served by not following analysts for this Stock! The Dramatic rise was due to brilliant marketing,branding and distribution strategies that surged the topline and led to increased profitability on account of both volume and margin growth. What inevitably followed was a re-rating of Earnings Multiples on Stock Market Quotes. Interestingly Monster never really got very expensive as it’s PE & Earnings Growth were largely in sync year on year.

Amazon is another Interesting Case Study. It was available at just US $ 1.50 in 1997 when it began to be quoted. It became a 100 Bagger inside two years by 1999 when it hit US $ 221 only to be destroyed inside the next two years by the dot.com bust to sink back into single digits by 2001.It took 10 years from there to become a 100 Bagger again. Chris & his team of analysts argue that Amazon yet holds great promise with internet sales rising from sub 2% of retail sales in 1997 to @ 9% currently and potential of 35% seen in the coming years. The Founder,Jeff Bezos is very clear that  value of the business is future cash flows discounted to the present and that focus should be on correct allocation of capital and return on invested capital. On first look it appears Amazon is not doing well till you add back the R & D Expenses that are more in the nature of Investments and can be argued need to be capitalised.For instance 2014 Sales were US $ 89 billion while Operating Profit was just US $ 179 million.However R & D was a mammoth US $ 9.27 Billion and when added back give over 10% Operating Margin. Market Leadership is important says Bezos.

It also covers the rationale of Betting on Billionaries like Steve Jobs of Apple or Bill Gates of Microsoft or Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway and even the new upcoming ones. It’s the argument of Owner-Operators vs Agent-Operators and how the former demonstrate abilities to make deals when others are afraid while the latter are loathe  to spend cash and prefer to take on less debt. 

If you believe, like I do, that India stands out currently in the Global Economy as a great Investment Destination for the decades ahead and act on this conviction after applying a lot of the insights from this book ,I assure you ,you’ll be writing out your own 100 Bagger Stories.

Just Invest Right & Sit Tight!

Learn from ‘100 baggers’ so you can live them!

A word of caution though …sitting tight can also cost you like once Blue chip Kodak did! & what with disruptive technologies being born every day.

It takes more than just Security Analysis. It takes Conceptual Power in what a Business can achieve & how big it can get.

Who said 100 baggers come Cheap!  

Cheers,

Gaurav Parikh

Ashima Ltd

Ashima Ltd
Textiles
FV – Rs 10; 52wks H/L – 21/6; TTQ – 54000; CMP (May 16, 2016; 11.30 am) – Rs 12.6;
Market Cap – Rs 54 Crs

Standalone Financials and Valuations for FY16 (Amt in Rs Crs unless specified)


Equity Capital

Net worth

Long Term
Debt

Total  
Sales
PAT
EPS (Rs)

Industry
P/E

Promoter’s
Stake

Beta
33.37 (60.93) 61 213 (23.58) (7.07) 33.32 33.38 1.69

 

The Equity capital does not include ~ 4,50,000 (13%) redeemable cumulative preference shares of Rs 100 each fully paid amounting to Rs 4.5 Crs and 1600000 (11%) redeemable cumulative preference shares of Rs 100 each fully paid amounting to Rs 16 Crs. Total Share capital of the firm equals to Rs 53.87 Crs.

Valuation Parameters

  1. EV/EBITDA: 12.86
  2. EV/Share: Rs 31
  3. EV/Sale: 0.48
  4. Market Cap/ Sale: 0.25

Overview:

  • Ashima Limited is engaged in the textiles business.
  • The Company manufactures and sells denim fabrics, and yarn dyed cotton fabrics.
  • The Company’s divisions include Denim Division, Spinfab Division and Attires Division.
  • The Company offers its products under ICON and Frank Jefferson brand names.
  • The Company’s products include denims, shirting, bottom weights and interlinings.
  • It offers the denim variants, such as open end denim, ring denim, slub denim, cross-hatch denim, stretch denim, fashion denim, polyester denim, Floc coated denim, linen denim and over dyed denim, among others.
  • Its shirting products include yarn dyed shirting, piece dyed shirting and fully bleached white shirting.
  • Its bottom weights include twills, chinos, gabardine, tussore, canvass and bedford cord structured fabrics. Its shirting range includes poplins, twills, cord, satin, combination weaves and dobby weaves.
  • The Company offers interlinings in soft, medium and stiff finishes.

Denim Division ~ Performance of Denim Division has further deteriorated, faced limitations in product offering in changing customer preferences in a market plagued with problem of oversupply.

Spinfab Division ~ has cut losses, saw lower volumes, but higher sales to brands, which as a segment offers better margins, which led to its improved performance.

Other Problems faced by the company ~ ageing machinery, Inability to meet demand of higher credit in the markets due to constraints of working capital.

Rights Issue

  • The Rights Issue had opened on November 18, 2015 and closed on December 2, 2015. On December 3rd, HDFC Bank had filed an Interim application seeking inter alia attachment from funds collected in the Rights Issue and on the same day Debt Recovery Tribunal – II had passed an order of status quo until December 17, 2015.
  • Later on, the Company on December 09, 2015 filed an application praying inter-alia rectification/modification of the said Order with DRT-II, Mumbai to enable all concerned parties to complete all formalities as per time lines prescribed in SEBI Circular dated April 22, 2010, more particularly the refund of excess amount received from rights share applicants pursuant to Letter of Offer dated October 28, 2015. DRT-lI vide order dated December 11, 2015 rejected the company’s prayer.
  • The Debt Recovery Tribunal-II, Mumbai (DRT) on December 23, 2015 passed an order for continuing the status-quo till January 11, 2016.
  • The Company subsequently filed a writ petition in the High Court of judicature at Bombay seeking appropriate reliefs against the orders of DRT and DRAT.
  • HDFC Bank on February 2nd filed a writ petition at Bombay High Court, seeking to quash and set aside the said DRAT orders of January 27, 2016. This petition was heard on February 9th and 11th. Since the DRAT Order dated January 27th was not clear on certain aspects, the Company put forth its view that it would also file a writ petition as due to ambiguity prevailing in the Order, bankers to the issue have refused to act on the order and sought more clarity on refund aspect.
  • In late February, the case moved to another Division Bench of High Court.
  • The Company has taken the matter with the Bankers to the Issue ~ ICICI Bank and Yes Bank. ICICI Bank on April 14, 2016 agreed to lift the freeze and instructions were accordingly given by the Registrars to the Issue to ASBA banks to transfer subscription monies to Rights Issue account with ICICI Bank and to unblock the balance money being the refund(s) amount.
  • Accordingly, all ASBA banks have unblocked the ASBA accounts, except Yes Ban and the subscription monies were transferred to rights issue account with ICICI Bank. However, Yes Bank belatedly on April 18, 2016 came up with a stand that they were still not clear on the clarification provided by the High Court Order and did not lift the freeze on rights issue account.
  • Thus, the Non ASBA refunds and unblocking of ASBA with Yes Bank has remained pending. Therefore, the procedure relating to completion of refunds and allotment could not take place.
  • Rights Issue Details ~ 80085089 Equity Shares of Rs 10 each for cash at par for an amount aggregating to Rs 80.09 Crs on a rights basis to the existing equity shareholders in the ratio of 24 Equity Shares for every 10 fully paid up equity sharesheld by the existing Equity Shareholders.
  • The entire Proceeds of the Rights Issue amounting to Rs 80.09 Crs would be utilized towards part repayment of outstanding principal secured debt as per proposed scheme of arrangement.

Scheme of Arrangement

  • The Company had a draft scheme of arrangement for reconstruction and compromise between the Company and its equity shareholders, preference shareholders and secured creditors with the Stock Exchanges and is in the process of filing the same with the Hon’ble High Court of Gujarat.
  • This Scheme of Arrangement is proposed as financial reconstruction of the Company pursuant to Re-organisation of preference share capital and settlement of Outstanding Secured Debts of the Secured Creditors of the Company.

Management:

Mr Chintan N. Parikh is the Chairman & Managing Director

Shareholding Pattern as on March 31, 2016

The Equity Capital is @Rs 33.37 Crs consisting of 33368787 Equity Shares of FV Rs 10 currently held as under

3% of the promoter’s holding is pledged

Sr No Major Non-Promoters % Stake
1 Malay Jayendra Dalal 1
2 Nehaben Hemangbhai Patel 1.17
3 Patel Hemang Sukhdevprasad 1.24
4 Aditya H. Patel 1.48
5 JMP Securities Pvt. Ltd. 1.14
6 Mentor Capital Limited 1.13
7 Geek Technologies Pvt. Ltd. 6.58
8 MP Investments India Limited 3.23

 

Share Price Trend

 

 

Standalone Financial Trends ~ Amt in Rs Crs

 Particulars FY 16 FY 15 FY 14 FY 13 FY 12 FY 11
Equity Paid Up 33.37 33.37 33.37 33.37 33.37 33.37
Networth -61 -269 -257 -244 -230 -216
Long Term Debt 61 457 468 468 471 471
Total Sales 213 271 268 268 245 259
PAT -23.56 -16.2 -310.91 -297.98 -333.04 -321.1
EPS (Rs) -7.06 -4.85 -93.17 -89.30 -99.80 -96.22
Book Value (Rs) -18 -81 -77 -73 -69 -65

 

Ricoh India Ltd

Ricoh India Ltd

The shares of Ricoh India Ltd are locked up at Upper circuit at a price of Rs 273 before hitting a Lower circuit early in the day. The share price has been vacillating between Lower circuits and Upper circuits alternatively for a number of days. The share price has fallen by 75% from its 52 week high of Rs 1072 made in July 2015.

Ricoh India is a subsidiary of Japanese multinational imaging and electronics company Ricoh Company, which directly holds 46.04% stake in its Indian arm. The parent company holds another 27.56% of Ricoh India through NRG Group, thus taking total holding to 73.6% in Ricoh India.

The Company has now filed a police against “suspected wrong-doers” ~ Ricoh files police complaint against suspected wrong-doers

The company has not yet reported it Quarter 2 results for the Financial Year ending 2016. The reason for the delay has been stated as a change of auditors which happened last year. Ricoh India’s auditors were originally a local firm called “M/s Sahni Natarajan and Bahl”. They were replaced by M/s BSR & Co. LLP, the Indian avatar of KPMG. The problems seem to be having started from then. Subsequently the company has also further delayed its reporting of quarter 3 results for FY16. Whereas when its parent company in Japan announced its third quarter results it sounded very much positive on the performance of its Indian IT service operations.

In January this year, India Ratings, a unit of Fitch, had upgraded its rating for Ricoh India’s Rs 200 Crs Long Ter Non-Convertible Debentures to Ind AA – from Ind A with a stable outlook and also that of Long Term Issuer Rating of Ricoh India to Ind AA- from Ind A with a stable outlook. Later, on March 15, the ratings agency placed the Company’s Long Term Issuer Rating, its Rs 200 Crs NCDs and its Commercial Papers on a Negative rating. The stock reacted by falling over 100 points from its day’s high of Rs 580.25 to Rs Rs 479.75 on March 16th 2016.

In February it won an order worth Rs 344 Crs from Kerala State Electronics Development Corporation Ltd for Supply, Installation and Commissioning of Computer Hardware, Connected Accessories, Software, Maintenance of Equipments and provision of Computer Education Services in 2000 Government & Government Aided High Schools in the State of Odisha on 5 Years BOOT Model Project under ICT School Scheme.

In its March 29th notification to the Stock exchange, the company communicated that it has “not yet received the signed limited review report from the auditors and the audit committee would take up again the matter with the Statutory Auditors to submit their limited review report on an immediate basis.” The notification also mentioned that “In order to assist the audit committee, the audit committee has sought the opinion of an Independent Agency in this regard”.

It is evident from the communication that the auditors have finished the audit but are refusing to issue a limited review report. A possible explanation to this could be that auditors must have pointed out severe objections on the accounts and are demanding a proper disclosure from Ricoh India. The communication also revealed that the “the review process is being coordinated by employees other than those who have been involved in the preparation, review, approval and signatures of the books and accounts.” and the excuse for this is “some of the employees in the latter category have been requested to avail leave with pay with effect on and from the 30th day of March, 2016”. The Company has called this a “standard practice” but the standard practice is that employees who prepare the accounts are at the forefront are supposed to answer the auditor’s queries. On April 1st, the Company notified that it has appointed an independent agency, an independent Law firm and accountants to assist the Auditor committee. Further, Ricoh India has requested its Mr Manoj Kumar, MD and CEO, Mr Arvind Singhal, CFO and Mr anil Saini, Senior VP and COO to take leave with pay during the review process. On behalf of the above officers, Mr A.T Rajan would be in charge of CEO and COO duties and Mr Bibek Chowdhury would be in charge of CFO functions. Later on April 4th Mr Manoj Kumar resigned from the Board of Directors with effect from April 2, 2016.

The scrip was transferred to ‘Z’ group from ‘B’ group on BSE due to non-compliance issues with effect from March 28th. The trades in these scrips executed in ‘Z’ group will be settled on trade for trade basis. If a company is shifted for settlement on trade-to-trade basis, selling or buying of shares in that scrip results into giving or taking delivery of shares at the gross level and no intra-day netting off/squaring off is permitted. The scrips which form part of the ‘Z’ group are compulsorily settled on a trade-to-trade basis.

The Company is now under regulatory glare amid allegations of financial irregularities that recently led to its top officials stepping down. The Securities and Exchange Board of India is looking into complaints including the lag in announcement of results by the company and the reasons that caused the delay.

Now, the BSE has issued notification on May 4th that trading in Ricoh India will be suspended from May 26, 2016 on account of non –compliance with Regulation 33 of SEBI Listing Regulations, 2015 for two consecutive quarters. And the most recent update being Ricoh India’s board will meet on May 17, 2016 to discuss Q2 FY16 results.

Month Open High Low Close No. of
Shares
No. of
Trades
Total Turnover Deliverable Quantity % Deli. Qty to Traded Qty * Spread
H-L C-O
Jul 15 1,037.00 1,072.25 930.00 1,024.50 8,58,902 26,219 86,80,75,472 4,51,644 52.58 142.25 -12.50
Aug 15 1,033.00 1,069.00 635.25 737.25 9,59,746 29,014 82,03,08,882 5,64,440 58.81 433.75 -295.75
Sep 15 721.00 940.00 580.00 905.50 11,75,697 37,479 89,13,73,396 6,89,430 58.64 360.00 184.50
Oct 15 915.00 960.00 835.00 899.00 4,56,031 11,859 41,48,01,329 3,22,233 70.66 125.00 -16.00
Nov 15 900.00 970.00 807.25 945.25 7,20,493 21,851 63,28,85,402 4,84,365 67.23 162.75 45.25
Dec 15 947.50 958.75 702.00 788.75 10,99,503 24,282 89,34,09,682 7,43,278 67.60 256.75 -158.75
Jan 16 790.75 800.00 590.00 595.75 4,94,864 14,653 34,25,49,794 3,44,843 69.68 210.00 -195.00
Feb 16 610.00 671.00 490.00 533.25 8,55,951 21,551 48,73,76,422 5,48,539 64.09 181.00 -76.75
Mar 16 530.00 647.00 422.00 422.00 9,44,904 21,605 52,26,52,754 6,11,494 64.71 225.00 -108.00
Apr 16 413.00 413.00 304.30 332.40 24,00,905 8,845 83,58,99,658 24,00,905 100.00 108.70 -80.60
May 16 330.00 330.00 240.10 273.00 8,35,309 3,059 22,69,84,330 8,35,309 100.00 89.90 -57.00

 

Standalone Financial Results – Amt in Rs Crs

 Particulars Q1 FY16 FY 15 FY 14 FY 13 FY 12 FY 11
Equity Paid Up 39.77 39.77 39.77 39.77 39.77 39.77
Networth 169 169 140 123 124 132
Long Term Debt 200 200
Total Sales 442 1638 1049 633 432 297
PAT 0.4 34 17 -1.3 -2.6 16
EPS (Rs) 12.47* 8.55 4.27 -0.33 -0.65 4.02
Book Value (Rs) 42 42 35 31 31 33

*TTM EPS for Q1 FY16

The Company has issued – Debentures from Related Party – Unsecured Redeemable Non Convertible Debentures in FY 15 – 2,000 units of 7.8% Debentures unsecured, non-cumulative, redeemable, taxable, listed, rated non-convertible of a face value of Rs. 10 lacs each privately placed at par during the year is redeemable in Financial Year 2017-18 for cash at par.

Trade Receivables for FY 15 have almost doubled to Rs 662 Crs from Rs 319 Crs in FY 14.

Cash and Cash equivalents have doubled as well for FY 15 to Rs 70 Crs from Rs 38 Crs. Balances with banks in this case have reduced to Rs 17 Crs from Rs 27 Crs, Cheques on hand have increased to Rs 40 Crs from Rs 2 Crs and Margin Money has also increased to Rs 13 Crs from Rs 9 Crs. Banks with balances includes blocked accounts amounting to Rs 3.17 Lakhs at the pre-devaluation rates of exchange.

Other short term loans and advances for FY 15 have increased 2.5 times to Rs 50 Crs from Rs 20 Crs in FY 14.

Ricoh India’s delisting offer had failed in 2014. Its Japanese parent had announced for delisting of the Indian arm in November 2013. The Share price had tripled in months after the news. The offer failed later on as the company’s Japanese promoters rejected the price discovered through the reverse book building (RBB) process and said Ricoh India would continue to remain listed.  The share price then dropped by 40% on the news. Ricoh India dips 36% in two sessions after delisting bid fails