Daily Bulletin (9th September, 2021)

Daily Bulletin (9th September, 2021)

https://www.bseindia.com/markets/MarketInfo/DispNewNoticesCirculars.aspx?page=20210909-46

 

Scrip code : 532734

Name : GODAWARI POWER AND ISPAT LTD.

Subject : Board to consider Sub-division of Equity Shares & Bonus Issue

Godawari Power and Ispat Ltd has informed BSE that a meeting of the Board of Directors of the Company is scheduled to be held on September 14, 2021, inter alia: 1. To Re-consider the Scheme of Arrangement of Godawari Power and Ispat Limited with Jagdamba Power and Alloys Limited. 2. To consider the proposal for sub-division / split of the equity shares of face value of Rs. 10 each of the Company in such manner as may be determined by the Board of Directors. 3. To consider the proposal for Issue of Bonus Shares; Further, pursuant to Company’s Code of Conduct for Regulating, Monitoring and Reporting Trading by an Insider and SEBI (Prohibition of Insider Trading) Regulations, 2015, ‘Trading Window’ for dealing in securities ofthe Company will remain closed from September 08, 2021 to till 48 hours after the conclusion of the Meeting of the Directors / KMP and other designated employees etc. covered under the Code.

 

Scrip code : 532636

Name : IIFL FINANCE LIMITED

Subject : Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Allotment

Pursuant to Regulation 30 of the SEBI (Listing Obligations and Disclosure Requirements) Regulations, 2015, we wish to inform that Finance Committee of the Board of Directors of the Company vide Resolution dated September 07, 2021 approved allotment of 1,000 Non-Convertible Debentures namely Secured Redeemable Non-Convertible Market Linked Debenture -Series D14 of Face Value of INR 10 Lakhs each, for cash at par, aggregating to INR 100 Crores, on Private Placement Basis. We request you to note the details of the aforesaid allotment as attached. This intimation is also uploaded on the website of the Company at www.iifl.com. Request you to kindly take the above information on your record and disseminate the same on your website.

 

Scrip code : 507779

Name : Kanpur Plastipack Limited

Subject : Board Meeting Intimation for Allotment Of Bonus Shares

KANPUR PLASTIPACK LTD.has informed BSE that the meeting of the Board of Directors of the Company is scheduled on 18/09/2021 ,inter alia, to consider and approve allotment of Bonus Shares in the ratio of 1:2 i.e. 1 fully paid up equity share as Bonus Share for every existing 2 fully paid up equity shares of Rs. 10/- each.

 

Scrip code : 521248

Name : Kitex Garmenets Ltd.

Subject : Board Meeting Intimation for Board Meeting Notice To Discuss Expansion Plans In The State Of Telangana

KITEX GARMENTS LTD.has informed BSE that the meeting of the Board of Directors of the Company is scheduled on 13/09/2021 ,inter alia, to consider and approve i. the expansion plans of the company in the state of Telangana It is further informed that as per Company’s Code of Conduct for Prohibition of Insider Trading framed pursuant to the SEBI (Prohibition of Insider Trading) Regulations, 2015, the Company has intimated its ‘designated persons’ regarding the closure of the Trading Window for trading in the Company’s equity shares from Today, September 9, 2021 and will be re-opened 48 hrs after the outcome of above board meeting is made to the public. Please take the above on record and acknowledge the receipt. Thanking you, For Kitex Garments Limited CS. Mithun B Shenoy Company Secretary & Compliance officer (ICSI M. no. FCS 10527)

 

Scrip code : 540005

Name : Larsen & Toubro Infotech Limited

Subject : Update On Scheme Of Amalgamation Between Syncordis Software Services India Private Limited And Ruletronics Systems Private Limited With Larsen & Toubro Infotech Limited

In continuation to our previous disclosures vide letter no. LTI/SE/STAT/2020-21/55 dated October 20, 2020 and letter no. LTI/SE/STAT/2020-21/64 dated November 13, 2020, we wish to inform you that the Hon’ble National Company Law Tribunal, Mumbai Bench vide its order dated July 16, 2021 has sanctioned the Scheme of Amalgamation between Syncordis Software Services India Private Limited and Ruletronics Systems Private Limited (‘Transferor Companies’), wholly owned subsidiaries, with the Company (‘Transferee Company’) and their respective shareholders (‘Scheme of Amalgamation’). The Company received the certified true copy of the order on September 6, 2021 and to make the Scheme of Amalgamation effective, the Company has filed the same with Registrar of Companies, Mumbai today on September 8, 2021. The Appointed date of the Scheme is April 1, 2021.

 

Scrip code : 532735

Name : R Systems International Limited

Subject : Corporate Action-Updates on Buy back

SUBMISSION OF LETTER OF OFFER FOR THE BUYBACK OF NOT EXCEEDING 1,333,000 (THIRTEEN LAKHS THIRTY THREE THOUSAND EQUITY SHARES) FULLY PAID-UP EQUITY SHARES OF FACE VALUE RE.1/- EACH (‘EQUITY SHARES’) OF R SYSTEMS INTERNATIONAL LIMITED (‘COMPANY’) AT A PRICE OF INR 225/- (RUPEES TWO HUNDRED AND TWENTY FIVE ONLY) PER EQUITY SHARE FOR AN AGGREGATE AMOUNT OF UP TO RS. 299,925,000/- (RUPEES TWENTY NINE CRORE NINETY NINE LAKHS TWENTY FIVE THOUSAND ONLY) (THE ‘BUYBACK SIZE’) THROUGH THE TENDER OFFER PROCESS PURSUANT TO THE SEBI (BUY BACK OF SECURITIES) REGULATIONS, 2018, AS AMENDED (‘BUYBACK REGULATIONS’)

 

 

Daily Bulletin (1st September, 2021)

Daily Bulletin (1st September, 2021)

https://www.bseindia.com/markets/MarketInfo/DispNewNoticesCirculars.aspx?page=20210901-45

Scrip code : 542752

Name : Affle (India) Limited

Subject : Board approves Sub-division of Equity Shares

Affle (India) Ltd has informed BSE that the Board of Directors of the Company at its meeting held on August 26, 2021, inter alia, has transacted the following business: – Approval of stock split (sub-division of equity shares) of Company’s One (1) equity share of face value of Rs. 10/- each into Five (5) equity shares of face value of Rs. 2/- each, subject to the approval of shareholders and other approvals as may be required.

 

Scrip code : 500103

Name : Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd.,

Subject : BHEL Secures Largest Ever Order Worth Rs 10,800 Crores From NPCIL For EPC Of Turbine Island For 6 Units Of 700 Mwe.

BHEL secures largest ever order worth Rs 10,800 Crores from NPCIL for EPC of Turbine Island for 6 units of 700 MWe.

 

Scrip code : 538789

Name : BUDGE BUDGE COMPANY LIMITED

Subject : Delisting Offer

VC Corporate Advisors Private Limited (“Manager to the Delisting Offer”) has submitted to BSE a copy of Initial Public Announcement Under Regulation 8(1) of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Delisting of Equity Shares) Regulations, 2021 (“SEBI Delisting Regulations”) for the attention of the Equity Shareholders of the Budge Budge Company Ltd (“the Company”).

 

 

Daily Bulletin (27th August, 2021)

Daily Bulletin (27th August, 2021)

https://www.bseindia.com/markets/MarketInfo/DispNewNoticesCirculars.aspx?page=20210827-48

Scrip code : 532628

Name : 3i Infotech limited

Subject : Announcement Under Regulation 30 (SEBI LODR) – Clarification On Rumors Regarding ‘Delisting Of Equity Shares Of The Company’

We would like to clarify that equity shares of 3i Infotech Limited, listed on BSE and NSE are not getting delisted. As mentioned in our intimation dated August 10, 2021, Tuesday, August 31, 2021 has been fixed as the Record Date for the purpose of determining the shareholders whose shares will be reduced and consolidated pursuant to the Scheme of Arrangement between the Company and its shareholders approved by Hon”ble NCLT, Mumbai Bench (‘Scheme’). As part of procedure to give effect to the Scheme, the trading in shares will get suspended with effect from end of trading hours on 27 August 2021. This does not amount to Delisting of shares of the Company. The trading will resume after completion of necessary corporate actions by the Company and the listing approvals issued by the stock exchanges. The Company will give necessary intimations regarding these events as per SEBI LODR. Investors are requested to monitor stock exchange website for authentic information and not rely on rumors.

 

Scrip code : 540879

Name : Apollo Micro Systems Limited

Subject : Apollo Micro Systems Limited (The ‘Company’) Bags Supply Order Worth INR 59.62 Crores

With reference to captioned subject and pursuant to regulation 30 of SEBI (LODR) Regulations, 2015 we are pleased to inform that Company has bagged an order for supplying of security & surveillances systems worth INR 59.62 Crores.

 

Scrip code : 500103

Name : Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd.,

Subject : Signing Of Mou Between BHEL And JSC Rosoboronexport

Signing of MoU between BHEL and JSC Rosoboronexport

 

Scrip code : 959804

Name : CAPITAL INDIA FINANCE LIMITED

Subject : Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Acquisition

In compliance with Regulation 30 and other applicable provisions of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Listing Obligations and Disclosure Requirements) Regulations, 2015 (‘Listing Regulations’), as amended from time to time, we would like to inform that Capital India Home Loans Limited, a material subsidiary of the Company has acquired 100% (One Hundred percent) shareholding of Credenc Web Technologies Private Limited (‘Credenc’) from its existing shareholders. Consequent to the acquisition as aforesaid, Credenc and its wholly-owned subsidiary, Credenc Finserv Private Limited, have become subsidiaries of the Company with effect from August 19, 2021.

 

Scrip code : 522275

Name : GE T&D India Limited

Subject : Update

Dear Sir, We write with reference to our earlier update dated 30 April 2021, wherein we informed that in relation to short term, non-exclusive contracts/purchase orders for global engineering services with other companies in the GE Grid Solutions division outside India, the Company was formally notified that with effect from 30 June 2021 no new contracts/purchase orders will be issued to the Company in relation to those services and existing contracts/purchase orders will lapse at their expiry date or be terminated by notice. Subsequently on this matter as last informed on July 31, 2021 GE Grid Solutions extended the termination date to August 31, 2021. On request of the management, GE Grid Solutions has vide its communication dated August 26, 2021 further extended the date of termination to December 31, 2021. The management continues to explore options to minimize the impact of such termination on the Company. This is for information of the exchange and the members.

 

Scrip code : 531439

Name : Goldstone Technologies Ltd.

Subject : Open Offer

IIFL Securities Ltd (“Manager to the Open Offer”) has submitted to BSE a copy of Public Announcement under Regulations 3(1) read with Regulation 13(2)(g) and 15(1) of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Substantial Acquisition of Shares and Takeovers) Regulations, 2011, as amended for the attention of the Public Shareholders of Goldstone Technologies Ltd (“Target Company”).

 

Scrip code : 500696

Name : Hindustan Unilever Ltd.,

Subject : Announcement Under Regulation 30 – Intimation Of Increase In Paid-Up Capital Of The Company

This is to inform you that the Committee of the Board in its Meeting held today, has allotted 2,424 Equity Shares of Re. 1/- each under ESOP, which vide Shareholder’s Resolution dated 29th May, 2006 is known as ‘2006 HLL Performance Share Scheme’, further amended vide Shareholder’s Resolution dated 23rd July, 2012 is known as ‘2012 HUL Performance Share Scheme.’ Consequent to the above allotment, the paid-up capital of the Company has increased to 2,34,95,91,262 shares & the issued capital has increased to 2,40,27,10,238 shares. Kindly take a note of the same in your records.

 

Scrip code : 532717

Name : Indo Tech Transformers Limited

Subject : Notice of Offer for Sale of Shares by Promoter & Floor Price

Shirdi Sai Electricals Limited (the “Seller”) one of the members of the promoter group of the Indo Tech Transformers Ltd (the “Company”) proposes to sell upto 3.85,498 Equity Shares of the Company (“Sale Shares”), representing approximately 3.63% of the total issued, subscribed and paid-up Equity Share capital of the Company, by way of an Offer For Sale (“OFS”) through a separate, designated window of the BSE Limited (the “BSE”) and the National Stock Exchange of India Limited (the “NSE”) collectively referred as (the “Stock Exchanges”) on Monday, August 30, 2021 (“T day”), (for non-retail investors only) and on Tuesday, August 31, 2021 (“T+1 day”) (for retail investors (“Retail Investors”) and non-Retail Investors who choose to carry forward their un-allotted bids). Date and time of the opening and closing of the OFS: The OFS shall take place over two Trading Days, as provided below: For not-Retail Investors on T Day i.e. Monday, August 30, 2021. The OFS shall take place on a separate window of the Stock Exchanges on T Day commencing at 9:15 AM and shall close at 3:30 PM (Indian Standard Time) on the same date. Non-Retail Investors who have placed their bids on T Day may indicate their willingness to carry forward their unallocated bids to T+1 Day for allocation to them in the unsubscribed portion of the Retail Category (defined below). Please note that only non-Retail Investors can place their bids on T Day i.e., Monday, August 30, 2021. For Retail Investors and for non-Retail Investors who opt to carry forward their unallocated bids from T Day, the date of opening of the offer would be on T+1 Day i.e., Tuesday, August 31,2021. The OFS shall continue to take place on the separate window of the Stock Exchanges on T+1 Day, commencing at 9:15 AM and shall close at 3:30 PM (Indian Standard Time) on the same date. Please note that only Retail Investors are permitted to place their bids on T+1 Day. Further those non-Retail Investors who had placed their bids on T Day and who opted to carry forward their unallocated bids from T Day to T+1 Day would be allowed to revise their bids on T+1 Day in terms of the SEBI OFS Circulars. (T Day and T+1 Day, collectively referred to as, “Sale Dates”). Floor Price: The floor price for the OFS has been fixed at Rs.140/-(rupees One Hundred and Forty only) per Sale Share (“Floor Price’’).

 

Scrip code : 506134

Name : Intellivate Capital Ventures Limited

Subject : Open Offer

D & A Financial Services (P) Ltd (“Manager to the Offer”) has submitted to BSE a copy of Public Announcement under Regulations 3(1) and 4, read with Regulation 15(1) of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Substantial Acquisition of Shares and Takeovers) Regulations, 2011, as amended (“Takeover Regulations”) for the attention of the Public Shareholders of Intellivate Capital Ventures Ltd (“Target Company”).

 

Scrip code : 533285

Name : RDB Realty & Infrastructure Limited

Subject : Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Scheme of Arrangement

In compliance with Regulation 30 of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Listing Obligations and Disclosure Requirements) Regulations, 2015(“the Listing Regulations”), read with Circular No. CIR/CFD/CMD/4/2015 dated 9th September, 2015 issued by the Securities and Exchange Board of India(“SEBI”), we hereby inform you that the Board of Directors of RDB Realty & Infrastructure Limited (“Board”) at its Meeting held today, i.e. on 26th day of August, 2021 has, on the recommendation of the Audit Committee, approved the revised Scheme of Arrangement for Demerger between RDB Realty & Infrastructure Limited (‘RRIL’) and RDB Real Estate Constructions Limited (‘RRECL’) and their respective shareholders for demerger of Realty division of RRIL, under Sections 230 to 232 of the Companies Act, 2013

 

Scrip code : 526477

Name : South Asian Enteprises Ltd.

Subject : Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Acquisition

Acquisition of 7359 of equity shares consisting of 60.34% of Equity Capital of Chai Thela Private Limited (“CTPL”) at the price approved by the Board involving outlay of about Rs.29 lacs. With the acquisition of aforesaid Equity on 23/08/2021, CTPL has become the subsidiary of the Company from the same date.

 

Scrip code : 513262

Name : Steel Strips & Wheels Ltd

Subject : Update Regarding Creation And Release Of Shares And Status Of Pledged Shares Of The Promoter Group Of Steel Strips Wheels Limited

We wish to inform you that the promoters along with the persons acting in concert holds 9797402 equity shares in Steel Strips Wheels Limited, which is 62.77% of the total paid up capital of the company and out of which 3227347 equity shares were pledged which is 20.68% of total paid up capital of the company and 32.94% of total promoter shareholding. On 25.08.2021, 22000 shares were pledged and on 26.08.2021, 401000 shares released from pledge, accordingly, now the total number of shares pledged has decreased to 2848347, which is 18.25% of total paid up capital of the company and 29.07% of total promoter shareholding.

 

S & P BSE SENSEX 52483

S & P BSE SENSEX 52483

   Greed is Good! ~ Really!?

 

Greed is Good! ~ Really!?

Greed is Good!” ~ remember this classic vulgarity from Gordon Gekko in the 1987 Blockbuster ‘Wall Street’? ~ the role of a Corporate Raider without a conscience essayed brilliantly by Michael Douglas.

Plato, the legendary Greek Philosopher, proclaimed that “Courage is knowing what not to fear” ~ well, if you don’t fear these insane markets then you indeed are very courageous.

FY 21 was a fantastic unparalleled year for the Sensex in terms of an insane re-bounce closing up 68% and 105% in the year and from pandemic lows respectively. MidCaps and SmallCaps were even more boisterous recording gains of 91/136 % and 115/193 % in the same periods.

This insane buoyancy has been driven by unprecedented inflows of @ $ 37 Billion in FY 21 from Foreign Portfolio Investors and a crazy FOMO flurry of new retail domestic investors that stands at over 72 million on June 30,2021 up over 40% from last year. Over 70 % of these new investors are below the age of 30.

The Party continues on the bourses like in Ibiza where partying never really ends and daresay with millions being seduced by this drug of ‘instant gratification’ with money begging to be made in just about every scrip ~ why worry about fundamentals!

Overleaf glance at the S & P BSE Sensex, MidCap and SmallCap Indices over periods in 2020 and 2021 till date to sense this euphoria. They read like Good, Better, & Best

S & P BSE Sensex

Period From To Rise % Rise
From Pandemic Low March 24,2020 till date June 30,2021 25639 52483 26844 105
FY 21 ~ March 31,2020 to March 31,2021 29468 49509 20041 68
CY 2020 ~ December 31,2109 to December 31,2020 41254 47751 6497 16
CY 2021 ~ December 31,2020 to date June 30,2021 47751 52483 4732 10
FY 22 ~ March 31,2021 to date June 30,2021 49509 52483 2974 6

 

S & P BSE MidCap

Period From To Rise % Rise
From Pandemic Low March 24,2020 till date June 30,2021 9555 22536 12981 136
FY 21 ~ March 31,2020 to March 31,2021 10570 20181 9611 91
CY 2020 ~ December 31,2109 to December 31,2020 14968 17941 2973 20
CY 2021 ~ December 31,2020 to date June 30,2021 17941 22536 4595 25
FY 22 ~ March 31,2021 to date June 30,2021 20181 22536 2355 12

 

S & P BSE SmallCap

Period From To Rise % Rise
From Pandemic Low March 24,2020 till date June 30,2021 8622 25232 16610 193
FY 21 ~ March 31,2020 to March 31,2021 9609 20649 11040 115
CY 2020 ~ December 31,2109 to December 31,2020 13699 18098 4399 32
CY 2021 ~ December 31,2020 to date June 30,2021 18098 25232 7134 39
FY 22 ~ March 31,2021 to date June 30,2021 20649 25232 4583 22

CY ~ Calendar Year January to December       FY ~ Financial Year April to March

Market Capitalisation and GDP

BSE Market Capitalisation is at Rs 22977769 crs a record or @ US $ 3.1 Trillion with the $=Rs 74.33. Four Months ago, in our March 1,2021 Scrip Standpoint the Market Cap was Rs 20081096 crs @ US $ 2.8 Trillion as on February 26,2021 with the Sensex @ 50000

Our FY 21 GDP is expected to contract 8% due to the pandemic and new government projection in the Budget is at US $ 2.67 Trillion. With an overwhelming second wave in this ongoing pandemic having resulted in extended lockdown and having impacted Q 1 in this ongoing FY 22 the FY 22 GDP projected in the Union Budget at US $ 3.05 Trillion will surely be revised downward. Assuming the projected growth rate of 14% drops to 9% the FY 22 GDP would yet remain sub US $ 3 Trillion at @ US $ 2.9 Trillion at the current exchange rate.

This means we are at 1.1 Mkt Cap/GDP already. While this is not alarming in itself, volatility and vulnerability concerns remain on both the numerator and the denominator. 

Going forward in 2021 and Beyond

Play with the scenarios, taking into consideration new high profile IPOs like LIC in the offing too which will increase the Mkt Cap, you should come to the same conclusion as we do that in the short term of this year 2021 it is highly unlikely and there is limited scope that the Sensex will maintain its momentum and move into the 55000 to 60000 range with confidence and assurance .The Indices Table above already supports this by showing a muted 2021 with the Sensex moving up 10% in CY 21 till date and 6% in Q1 FY 22 ~ a much slower pace than in 2020 .What flags up as Red though is the continuing surges in MidCaps and SmallCaps and we remain concerned at the commentary by many that there is yet lots of steam in these segments in the short term. Be Selective.

Our Equity Strategy and Approach

This pandemic has on one hand, created a Global Liquidity Tap on a scale never before seen and which has surged Equity Markets in the face of low yields too. This Tap needs to sustain any Economy surge too. On the other hand, this pandemic has been a catalyst for Economic Reforms across sectors balancing out the need to make India ‘Atmanirbhar’ while simultaneously relaxing the restrictions for Foreign Direct Investments. Such further opening out of our Economy through Disinvestment, Privatisation, Funding and Tax Sops creates Opportunities as we transit rapidly to an advanced Digital and Green Age. Unemployment remains a key concern even in the longer run when both the economic drivers of consumption and capex are expected to kick in

It’s difficult to spot fundamental value in these elevated markets. This has translated into fewer recommendations and making allowance for increased risk in growth and turnaround opportunities. Our approach will continue to remain fundamental, contrarian when we see it as such, with an eye on preservation of wealth while growing it largely through asset allocation and increasing core segment weightage when indicated.

Normally we request clients to think three years and not three minutes or three months when investing in Direct Equity in India. These are not ‘Normal’ times and thus we are making allowance for any major correction globally in Equities in the coming year or two and have commenced advising clients to look even beyond 2025 and into the end of the decade 2030 and maintain the discipline of Asset Allocation to protect Wealth.

This would position the Portfolio to withstand any potential shock in the short and medium term and avoid a scenario where wealth grown in equities in 2020-2022 gets decisively decimated in 2022-2023. Investors, of course must have the temperament to tolerate drawdowns in long term compounders.       

Cheers,

Gaurav Parikh, Managing Director, [email protected] +91-9820162597

Disclosure & Disclaimer

Jeena Scriptech Alpha Advisors Pvt Ltd (JSAAPL) is a SEBI Registered Entity offering Fundamental Direct Equity Research Analysis, Equity Portfolio Advisory, Training & Mentoring Services in Capital Markets

 

This Report is under our free access SCRIP STANDPOINT Module.It is for the personal information of the recipient/reader. We are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. It is our Viewpoint for general information purposes only. It does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individuals & other entities .We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither JSAAPL, nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without JSAAPL’s prior written consent. In case you require any clarification or have any concern, kindly write to us at: [email protected]

 

Regd Office: Jeena House, Plot No 170, Om Nagar off Pipeline Road, Andheri (East), Mumbai 400099, Maharashtra, India
Corporate Office: Elphinstone Bldg, 1st Fl, Above Starbucks & Croma, Veer Nariman Rd, Horniman Circle, Fort, Mumbai 400001
Tel: +91 22 62999117 /138 ~ Email: [email protected] ~ Website: www.jsalphaa.com ~ CIN: U74999MH2010PTC210730
SEBI Research Analyst Registration : INH000006907  ~  SEBI Investment Adviser Registration : INA000013217

 

 

Gulshan Polyols Ltd

Gulshan Polyols Ltd
Commodity Chemicals
FV – Rs 1; 52wks H/L – 199.9/33.05; TTQ – 76 K; CMP – Rs 193 (As On June 17 , 2021);                      

            Market Cap – Rs 907 Crs

Consolidated Financials and Valuations for FY21 (Amt in Rs Crs unless specified)


Equity Capital


Net worth
 Debt
Total
Sales
PAT
BV
(Rs)

EPS (Rs)

P/E

P/BV

Promoter’s
Stake
4.69 366 11 768 62 78 13.2 14.6 2.5 68.2

 

  • The company has become virtually debt free
  • The company has started off the process of setting up a 300KLPD Grain based Ethanol Manufacturing Facility at its existing site at Chhindwara, Madhya Pradesh for which Land has been acquired and Environment Clearance is awaited. Shortlisting of suppliers of Capital Items is under process. The project is expected to be on stream shortly after receipt of Environmental Clearance. Company has also received an In-Principle Approval of Government of India-DFPD for grant of Interest Subvention for maximum permissible Loan amount of ₹ 170 crs.
  • Based on Government of India’s ‘Ethanol Blending Petroleum Program’ of selling petrol blended with Ethanol upto 20% by 2025 (Currently it is blending 10% Only), the Management is very much enthusiastic about future outlook of Ethanol Business, so it is exploring new locations and avenues.
  • The Ethanol business has become a feather on the cap of Company’s performance in the Distillery segment which is doing exceptionally well due to processing and supply of ‘Ethanol’ to ‘Public Sector Companies’ and contributing into revenue growth by Rs. 46 crs in Q4’FY21 vs. Q4’FY20 and on yearly basis, it contributed Rs. 128 crs. Further, Company’s performance in the Grain Processing business has grown in revenue by Rs. 44 crs in Q4’FY21 vs. Q4’FY20, due to good demand in the segment.
  • The company “during the Covid-19 pandemic situations and seeking the future opportunities” has successfully introduced the commercial production of Ethanol and started supplies to BPCL and HPCL and It was been awarded a tender of 72 lakh KL for the year 2020.
  • The company has also ventured into the production of WHO approved Hand Sanitizers with alcohol content of 80% which it is selling under 6 packing variants and also supplying to B2B customers in tankers and drums. Being the licensed manufacturer of key ingredient, and located right in center of the country, Company sees it as an opportunity to develop a new and sustainable product.

Overview:

Gulshan Polyols Limited (“GPL”) is a multi location, multi product manufacturing company and has become a market leader in most of its products in India with global presence in 42 countries, across 3 continents. Its business portfolio covers Starch Sugars, Calcium Carbonate, Ethanol, Ethyl Neutal Alcohol, Agro based Animal Feed, & OnSite PCC plants with production facilities at Muzaffarnagar in Uttar Pradesh, Bharuch in Gujarat, Chhindwara in M.P., Dhaula Kuan in Himachal Pradesh, Abu Road in Rajasthan, Patiala in Punjab, Tribeni in West Bengal, Amlai in Madhya Pradesh. Gulshan Polyols Ltd. caters to wide range of industry & niche markets in core sector encompassing pharmaceuticals, personal care products, footwear, tyres, rubber & plastics, paints, alcohol, value added paper, agrochemicals, food and agro products. It caters to leading industrial units of the country such as Colgate Palmolive, Hindustan Unilever Ltd, Dabur, Asian Paints and ITC etc.

The company has three manufacturing segments viz Mineral Processing, Grain Processing & Distillery. The products processed under these segments, are having end use in multiple industries.

Starch Sugars Business: It includes Sorbitol-70% solution, Liquid Glucose, Native Starch, High Fructose Rice Syrup (HFRS), Brown Rice Syrup and Rice Syrup Solids. The Sorbitol-70% plant in Bharuch, Gujarat is working at optimum capacity and has been the highest revenue contributor in the growth of the company. The Rice-based Grain Processing Plant at Muzaffarnagar, has achieved optimum level of capacity utilization and was the main growth driver and will remain the same in the future also.

Native Starch/ Maize Starch: It is the main carbohydrate nutrient from different sources of vegetation. Maize or corn starch powder is white, odorless and tasteless, which is extracted from kernel of maize/ corn. It is widely used as a thickener and a stiffening agent with numerous industrial applications.

High Fructose Rice Syrup (HFRS) which is naturally found in fruits, honey, corn syrup and molasses. Commercially, High Fructose Rice Syrup is used as a sweetener in flavored and unflavored syrups, energy drinks, processed food, bakery products.

Brown Rice Syrup, popularly known as Liquid Glucose. It is a preferred sweetener for natural/healthy foods. Rice syrup is used as base sweetener in edible sweet syrups (Flavored / Unflavored), blended honey, bakery foods, cakes, pastries, fillings, toppings, candies, canned fruits, health drinks, juices, soft drinks, Dairy products, icecreams.

 Rice Syrup Solids which is also known as dried glucose syrup or Glucose Powder. It is usually used as sweetener and stabilizers for moisture & texture in baked goods, confectionary (hard candy), dairy products, processed meats, seafood and also used by breweries to lighten beer color, add body, rice flavor and fermentable sugars. It is easily dispersed into water for ease of use in quick dissolving beverage mixes.

Management:

  • C. K. Jain – CMD
  • Ashwani Kumar Vats – CEO
  • Rajiv Gupta – CFO

 

Share Price Trend:

Share Price Snapshot:

Year Open (Rs.) High (Rs.) Low (Rs.) Close (Rs.)
2015 214.85 480 207 456.2
2016 460 490 71.2 73.7
2017 74 113.95 72 86.35
2018 82.15 98.9 48.1 65
2019 65 71.5 32.55 41.6
2020 43.35 88.95 19.9 82.25
2021 82.05 199.9 80.1 193.35

 

Sources:

Annual Report – https://www.bseindia.com/bseplus/AnnualReport/532457/65046532457_17_10_20.pdf

Result – https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/2465b656-a8b9-4924-972b-85e17b9bd675.pdf

 

S & P BSE SENSEX 50000 – What Lies Ahead

S & P BSE SENSEX 50000

   What Lies Ahead

Markets

Sensex closed February 2021 at 49100 ,gaining 19 % in 14 months from January 1,2020 pre pandemic opening of 41349 and a remarkable 92% in just 11 months from the pandemic low of 25639 on March 24,2020.In fact the high of 52517 reached earlier this month on February 16,2021 is a whopping 105% from the pandemic low stated

Friday’s significant correction of nearly 2000 points on weak global cues got the Sensex down below 50000 to close at 49100.A Healthy Correction is always welcome.

The 11 months of FY 21 have been overwhelmingly buoyant and will remain an irony of this pandemic where many lives and livelihoods have been lost. Of course those who benefited with these elevated and richer equity valuations have a lot to be happy for.

Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI) Inflows in FY 21

This buoyancy has been supported by record FPI  equity inflows of US $ 36 billion in FY 21 thus far in 11 months .This is nearly twice the second highest inflows of US $ 19 billion (at today’s fx rate of US $ 1=Rs 73.05) recorded in 2012-13.Of this over US $ 25 billion has flowed in just five months from October 2020 as low yields dominated world markets to aid a post pandemic economic recovery

Market Capitalisation  and GDP

BSE Market Capitalisation is at a record Rs 20081096 crs or @ US $ 2.8 Trillion as on February 26,2021.It was higher mid Feb when Sensex soared past 52000

Our FY 21 GDP is expected to contract 8% due to the pandemic and new government projection in the Budget is at US $ 2.67 Trillion.There is some credibility restored in these projections as our Q3 FY 21 GDP just announced is back up positive with corporate earnings resurgence .

Yet Mkt Cap/GDP remains high over 1.For FY 22 the GDP is projected at US $ 3.05 Trillion.So one perspective is that if this ratio remains 1 we can see Market Cap climbing to over US $ 3 Trillion and sustaining .That’s just another 7% up and which we already reached earlier this month when we crossed 52000 on the Sensex.That does not give much scope for Sensex to keep it’s rocketing momentum in 2021.Moreover also do remember that Market Cap need not rise only because of share prices rising.It will also rise because of new Issues being listed and we have the much awaited LIC IPO in the offing later in 2021 or early 2022

Going forward in 2021

We must be honest that we cannot forecast if this buoyancy is sustainable in the shorter term and wise asset allocation will always help to preserve wealth while growing it .However the longer term does continue to hold potential for Indian Equities.Thus one must look much beyond 2021 when we expect the much delayed infrastructure thrust announced in this Union Budget to bear fruit .The Union Budget changed nervous sentiment to one of optimism for India’s sustainable economic growth going forward though it remains to be seen if the common man too is uplifted in this growth or the growth assets in this huge privatisation of public assets and farm produce will be cornered by just a few capitalists and the huge borrowings to fund the fiscal deficit actually are substantially invested in Capex rather than in Revenue Expenditure and the challenges of unemployment and income skewness will continue to bite us

Our Equity Strategy and Approach

Our Equity Strategy and Approach will always remain fundamental ~ tactical and contrarion  when we see the opportunity for significant equity wealth creation like we assessed in April 2020 at the pandemic lows . Naturally with the Pandemic Lows came client convictions lows too and while infusion of fresh capital came in only later in 2020 from them and new clients , what we did in April 2020 is switch their Non Core Segment tactically to just a few selections which we saw as huge wealth creating opportunities in 2020 and 2021 .The Core Segment as set based on Client Risk Profile was not disturbed .This worked brilliantly and became game and life changing too as all our earlier Clients Equity Portfolios have recorded three digit % returns thus far in FY 21,significantly higher than what the Sensex has recorded as stated above

Here are actual returns in the 11 months of FY 21 thus far in portfolios advised by us

Sensex and Nifty closed at 49100 and 14529 respectively on February 26,2021  clocking 71% and 69 %  gains respectively in the 11 months from March 31,2020
Direct Equity Portfolio 1 2 3
Profile

Amt in Rs Lakhs

30+,Female,Moderate,

Mktg Professional

50+,Male,Moderate

Company Head

60+,Male,Aggressive,

Leading Doctor

Opening Value

April 1,2020

15.63 42.74 19.78
Closing Value

February 26,2021

130.45 #177.01 205.26
Absolute Gains *84.82 134.27 185.48
Absolute % Gains 542 314 938
* net of fresh Rs 30 lakhs invested in January 2021     # including Rs 1.13 crs withdrawn in late 2020

This strategy and approach will continue ,albeit with an eye on preservation of wealth while growing it largely through asset allocation and increasing core segment weightage when indicated

New Clients are already tasting success in the short term on the buoyancy but they should temper excitement and as stated earlier look long term beyond 2021 and of course our Clients from earlier should not expect such triple digit % equity portfolio returns year on year on year .Having said this 2020 has set the base for growth

Have a safe March and wishing you a bountiful FY 22 and beyond

 

Cheers,

Gaurav Parikh, Managing Director

[email protected] +91-9820162597

 

Disclosure & Disclaimer

Jeena Scriptech Alpha Advisors Pvt Ltd (JSAAPL) is a SEBI Registered Entity offering Fundamental Direct Equity Research Analysis, Equity Portfolio Advisory, Training & Mentoring Services in Capital Markets

This Report is under our free access SCRIP STANDPOINT Module.It is for the personal information of the recipient/reader. We are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. It is our Viewpoint for general information purposes only. It does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individuals & other entities .We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither JSAAPL, nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without JSAAPL’s prior written consent. In case you require any clarification or have any concern, kindly write to us at: [email protected]

 

Regd Office: Jeena House, Plot No 170, Om Nagar off Pipeline Road, Andheri (East), Mumbai 400099, Maharashtra, India
Corporate Office: Elphinstone Bldg, 1st Fl, Above Starbucks & Croma, Veer Nariman Rd, Horniman Circle, Fort, Mumbai 400001
Tel: +91 22 62999117 /138 ~ Email: [email protected] ~ Website: www.jsalphaa.com ~ CIN: U74999MH2010PTC210730
SEBI Research Analyst Registration : INH000006907  ~  SEBI Investment Adviser Registration : INA000013217

 

UNION BUDGET 2021

UNION BUDGET 2021 

Borrow and Monetize to Grow    

bseindia.com

“100 years of India wouldn’t have seen a Budget being made post-pandemic like this”

This was the promise made by Finance Minister Mrs Nirmala Sitharaman on December 18,2020.Did she deliver yesterday ?

Well for one,it was a historic paperless budget ! and the Sensex cheered her all the way as the Markets viewed ‘no negatives as a positive’ as she announced a strong Infrastructure thrust to be funded by borrowing and monetisation of assets .There was neither any ‘Covid Tax’ as feared nor was there any increase in Direct Taxation rates.It was a relief rally in a sense for  Markets had turned jittery after a record 50184 level on January 21,2021.Last week Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) had reversed their record inflows of past few months , selling Equity on each of the four trading days to aggregate Rs 6698 crs or US $ 918 m outflows for the week.Budget Day yesterday they were back buying Rs 1494 crs worth again quelling some concern that outflows would continue.

The Buoyancy should remain this week but so should the Volatility going forward for Intent has been announced but Implementation and Execution are yet to be seen

Here’s at least 10 reasons why the Markets Cheered all the way

  • No Negatives ~ Direct Taxation was largely left untouched ~ No Covid Tax
  • Major Thrust on Infrastructure with a setting up of a Development Financial Institution with a starting capital of Rs 20000 crs and which would facilitate raising Rs Five Lakh Crores over the next Five Years for Infrastructure Projects in Roadways,Power,Ports,Shipping ,Airports
  • Disinvestment and Strategic Sales of BPCL,Air India,Concor,Shipping Corporation of India,Bharat Earth Movers,Pawan Hans,and IDBI Bank in FY 22.Target is Rs 175000 crs . IPO of LIC to be completed in FY 22
  • Steps to make India a global manufacturing hub in five years
  • Monetisation of Land owned by Government and Public Sector Units
  • Two PSU Banks and One General Insurance Company to be identified for Privatisation ~ All Banks simply took off on the Bourses
  • FDI Cap raised in Insurance from 49% to 74 % with Foreign Control subject to some safeguards
  • Announcement of a Voluntary Scrappage Policy for Vehicles
  • Plan to set up Asset Reconstruction and Asset Management Holding Companies to take over stressed assets of Public Sector Banks thus aggregating these assets for faster resolution and realisation of such assets by experts
  • National Monetization Pipeline of potential brownfield infrastructure assets (comprising of assets from NHAI, PGCIL, Dedicated Freight Corridor, Airports, Warehousing Assets, Sports Stadia) to be launched

Here’s our Quick Budget Take and what we think you should be aware of 

We always re-iterate there are seven ways to raise Capital

Increasing Income Reducing Expenditure Raising Equity Borrowing
Sellling Assets Printing Currency Stealing

 

Well, Stealing or Theft is certainly not  what a Country can do ! but the other six options certainly can be exercised.Post Budget our FM has revealed that neither raising Taxes nor printing currency was on the table .Her Budget reveals the twin approach of Increased Borrowings and Asset Monetisation to raise Capital .

 

Budget at a Glance (Annexure 1 Sr 7) and Sources of Financing Fiscal Deficit (Annexure 2 Sr 8 ) show Borrowings rocket up Rs 1052318 crs in FY 21 from Budget Estimates of Rs 796337 crs to Revised Estimates of Rs 1848655 crs ~ that’s a 132% increase ! For FY 22 the Budget Estimates are Rs 1506812 crs .These Borrowing are the Fiscal Deficit which for FY 21 is 9.5% of the revised FY 21 GDP of Rs 19481975 crs (just a -4.2% de-growth)  and for FY 22 is 6.8% of the FY 22 GDP of Rs 22287379 crs ( 14.4 % GDP growth)      

FY 22 Disinvestment Proceeds of Rs 175000 crs are shown in  Budget at a Glance ( Annexure 1 Sr 6)  and Receipts (Annexure 3 Sr 3A(ii) ) whch also show the significantly downward revised FY 21 proceeds at Rs 32000 crs  against earlier Rs 210000 crs estimated

While resorting to the Borrowing Route would raise concern,it must be observed that in an era of low and even negative interest rates ,India would be able to raise debt at attractive interest rates despite it’s BBB- Credit Ratings by both Standard & Poor’s and Fitch.

The concern does remain though on the proportion of application of such borrowings  to Capital Expenditure of which the narrative of the Government and a lot of ‘Yes’ Experts has been over-complimentary

Here’s the Proportion of  Capex to Borrowings as extracted from Budget at a Glance (Annexure 1)

Ref in Annexure 1 In Rs Crs BE FY 21 RE FY 21 BE FY 22
Sr 7 Borrowings 796337 1848655 1506812
         
Sr 12 Grants in Aid for Creation of Capital Assets 206500 230376 219112
Sr 13 Expenditure on Capital Account 412085 439163 554236
  Total Capex 618585 669539 773348
  % to Borrowings 78 36 51

 

In our view the comfort level of the Government for such a huge scale of Borrowings comes from what appears to be an understatement of  both Tax Revenues (underplaying Tax Buoyancy) as well as Disinvestment Proceeds as observed in Receipts (Annexure 3) . The Disinvestment Target of Rs 175000 crs is actually an aggregation of Rs 75000 crs Disinvestment Receipts and Rs 100000 crs through sale of Government Stake in Banks and Financial Institutions.In our View the embedded value of LIC is huge and even a 10% stake sale by the Government will garner much more than Rs 175000 crs

 

Post Budget the FM exclaimed in a TV Interview “We’ve Spent,We’ve Spent ,We’ve Spent!” ~ Refer to Annexure 4 for Expenditure reference .She might have also expressed “We’ve Borrowed,We’ve Borrowed,We’ve Borrowed !” or “ We’ve Sold, We’ve Sold,We’ve Sold !” to convey the adoption of Borrowing and Asset Monetisation to raise Capital,the latter remark probably conceding the Government has failed to manage most PSUs efficiently and it has no business to be in business.

Conclusion

Our major concern remains Inequality and Income Skewness in that all of India will not be carried up together as our Economy bounces back. While thrust on Infrastructure is much welcome, the huge fiscal deficit and thus the unprecedented scale of borrowings raises a Caution if we don’t see the desired outcome in the coming years of Income, Revenue and Employment Generation fall in place. The FRBM had envisaged 3% fiscal deficit this year.With the Economy slowing down even before the pandemic arrived last year, the fiscal deficit was never going to be down to 3% .FY 21 it’s 9.5%.FY 22 it’s targeted at 6.8% and the FM says by FY 25 it should be 4.5%.So a US $ Five Trillion Economy is set back a few years more than by FY 25 .Even a fear of a few cornering  the proposed monetization of assets through disinvestment, privatization and sale of land is not misplaced

Those who will continue benefiting from Stock Market Surges are but a small percentage of the population  who invest in Equities. The Penetration is in low single digit %

Here’s the current reality of our per capita dropping below Rs One lakh .This should revive back in FY 22

Financials, Infra plays , Metals  are potentially rewarding themes in FY 22 and if you can zone in on which two PSU Banks and General Insurance Company are  to be privatized as announced by the FM in the Budget ,you’ve got winners in your portfolio. Keep a keener eye on Corporate Earnings to confirm a V Shaped Recovery and on FPI Flows which determines market trends .2021 is going to very interesting

 

Cheers,

Gaurav Parikh, Managing Director

[email protected] +91-9820162597

 

Disclosure & Disclaimer

Jeena Scriptech Alpha Advisors Pvt Ltd (JSAAPL) is a SEBI Registered Entity offering Fundamental Direct Equity Research Analysis, Equity Portfolio Advisory, Training & Mentoring Services in Capital Markets

 

This Report is under our free access SCRIP STANDPOINT Module.It is for the personal information of the recipient/reader. We are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. It is our Viewpoint for general information purposes only. It does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individuals & other entities .We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither JSAAPL, nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without JSAAPL’s prior written consent. In case you require any clarification or have any concern, kindly write to us at: [email protected]

 

Regd Office: Jeena House, Plot No 170, Om Nagar off Pipeline Road, Andheri (East), Mumbai 400099, Maharashtra, India
Corporate Office: Elphinstone Bldg, 1st Fl, Above Starbucks & Croma, Veer Nariman Rd, Horniman Circle, Fort, Mumbai 400001
Tel: +91 22 62999117 /138 ~ Email: [email protected] ~ Website: www.jsalphaa.com ~ CIN: U74999MH2010PTC210730
SEBI Research Analyst Registration : INH000006907  ~  SEBI Investment Adviser Registration : INA000013217

 

 

SENSEX AND NIFTY STRAIN ON A NEW STRAIN 

SENSEX AND NIFTY STRAIN ON A NEW STRAIN 

Red Flags Fluttering Wildly    

SENSEX 30 ALL IN THE RED TODAY AS SENSEX DIVES 3% TO 45554

bseindia.com

Sensex and Nifty Correction ~ More Pain ahead

In our SCRIP STANDPOINT  of September  6,2020 we had raised several Red Flags when Sensex had crossed 40000 on the morning of the last trading day in August 2020 before reacting to under 38500 on the India–China standoff in Ladakh.In the three and a half months since then ,India and China have had 20 rounds of negotiations till date to ease the border tension while the Markets had merrily resumed their run up surging above another 23% with the Sensex and Nifty crossing  47000 and 13500 last week on the strength of continuing low yields and record Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) Inflows

Correction seemed an Illusion until the crack today as Sensex and Nifty sank 3% and 3.14% to close at 45554 and 13328 respectively.It took a new Covid Mutation Strain announced by United Kingdom at the weekend to trigger a Strain in our Markets

The Red Flags raised in September 2020 have been fluttering wildly and we refuse to accept that the Market Cap/GDP at 1 and the Nifty PE at 37 with a Standard Deviation of 4 is the ‘New Normal’ as we refused in September 2020 too when these were lower than now but yet high at 0.84 and 32+ and 3 Standard Deviation respectively

It is a dangerous perspective to view the success of such roaring Share Markets as evidence and support and  reflecting of how robust our Economy is going to be bouncing back post pandemic .In that it is highly risky to view the High Share Price and consequent Gains as the decisive yardstick for Business Performance of the Company

So are  Indian Stock Markets ?:

  • In a Bubble or
  • Running Ahead of Fundamentals or
  • A Great Opportunity to buy into more at Dips as ‘the best is yet to come’ as we’re at the cusp of a great bull run and an economic surge in the years ahead as the incumbent government,corporate chieftains and innumerable leading market experts and investment icons are leading us to believe

All the four legs of the Equity Table ~Valuation, Liquidity, Sentiment and Momentum ~  are high ~ pumped up by excessive global liquidity  (US and Europe Stimulus Packages) and low yields and the first administering of the Covid Vaccine with a prayer that this will put the pandemic behind us in 2021  .

In 2020 till date FPIs have pumped in a record net near US $ 22 billion into Indian Equities even after considering the huge US $ 8.4 billion pull out in March 2020.October, November and December till date alone has seen FPI Equity inflows of US $ 2.7 b, 8.2 b and 7.2 b respectively aggregating a whopping and record over US $ 18 b 

 

Month in 2020 FPI Net Equity Inflows in Rs Crs
January 12123
February 1820
March -61973 }   Covid Shock Panic Outflows
April -6884   }
May 14569
June 21832
July 7563
August 47080
September -7783       China Aggression in Ladakh
October 19541   } MSCI Emerging Markets Index
November 60358   } rejig to up India weightage from
December (till December 21) 52699   } 8.1% to 9%
  160945 => US $ 21.89 b at INR/USD 73.51

nsdl.co.in, jeena scriptech research

 

In the Financial Year 2020-21 till date FPI Equity Inflows have been a record of over Rs 2 lakh crs => over US $ 28 b. Since 1991-92 the highest inflow ever before was Rs 1.4 lakh crs in FY 2012-13

In our View ,we are not in a Bubble but yes,the Markets post the March 24, 2020 Covid shock panic Sensex low of 25639  had run up an insane 80 % and way ahead of fundamentals to 47000.The Correction today to 45554 has brought in some sanity.We do sense there is yet more pain before markets stabilise and that in our view would be a healthy scenario 

Two Crucial Red Flags revisited ~ An Updated Scenario

  1. Market Cap to GDP Ratio at a record high of 1 in India
  2. Nifty PE at 37 ,higher than even pre Lehman collapse in 2008 and at four times standard deviation

1 ~ Market Cap to GDP Ratio at a record high of 1 in India

Date Sensex

Level

Market Cap

(Rs Crs)

Mkt Cap/GDP
Early 2020 High January 20,2020 42274 1,59,28,030 0.78
52 Week Low March 24,2020 25639 1,03,69,706 0.51
Current December 21,2020 45554 1,78,79,323 0.98*

                     bseindia.com, jeena scriptech research

* On FY 21 Estimated GDP assuming -10% fall in GDP

Provisional FY 20 GDP is Rs 203.4 lakh crs => Estimated FY 21 GDP Rs 183.1 lakh crs at -10% fall

In 2007 Pre Lehman bull run era this Ratio was at a bold Red 1.92 in India and the crash that followed took it to 0.52 inside months. This low level was touched late March 2020 this year in the meltdown and at the time we had issued a SCRIP STANDPOINT that revolved around Cash, Courage & Conviction to take advantage of great value opportunities

2 ~ Nifty PE at 37, much higher than even pre Lehman collapse in 2008 and at four times standard deviation       

                                          

nifty-pe-ratio.com

The Nifty PE had soared past 32 when we raised an alarm in our September 6, 2020 SCRIP STANDPOINT .It yet had continued its wild ride crossing 37 last week before today’s correction dropped it to 36.67.In the heady 2000-01 it had crossed 30 in the Ketan Parekh led ICE Bull Run and the Sensex was even crazier at 64 levels in 1991/92 in the late Harshad Mehta led Bull Run. The subsequent market decimation post these bull runs decimated many.

Even Pre Lehman 2007 Bull Market never saw the Nifty PE at above 30.

The Nifty PE at 37 and four standard deviations is one of the most striking red flags that’s screaming out a loud warning that Rising Stock Market Levels are out of sync with expected lower Corporate Earnings in FY 21 notwithstanding great expectations of a sterling rebound in FY 22 from a lower base.

More correction is strongly indicated 

Conclusion

Caution Red Flags had been getting more striking every day warning of a significant Stock Market Reversal.

We reiterate what we advised in our September 6, 2020 SCRIP STANDPOINT

“Strict discipline of Asset Allocation needs to be adhered to while balancing out Greed, Fear and Risk and maintaining Cash and Long Term Core in Direct Equity at a sound tactical weightage.

Low Yields are driving increased risk taking and thus driving the rally in Stocks and taking prices and valuations through the ceiling. Bulls are taking comfort in this and there is danger of being lulled into a false sense of security and complacency in that  that this rally will go on and on and on as long as the US Fed keeps expanding it’s balance sheet (record Trillions of Dollars already this year) to provide liquidity support. Yet, there’s got to be a Limit.

A Healthy Correction will bring back sanity to Valuations and make a sound base for a sustainable Recovery later in 2021 hopefully in a post Covid era and on a global economic recovery.”

It’s always wise and smart to encash some or all of the strong gains realized once target is achieved in the short term which even though may have been envisioned  in the longer term. If it’s a loss situation it may yet be prudent to book it on a case to case basis    

Do remember what outgoing US President Trump warned repeatedly that if he’s not re-elected , the Stock Markets Crash that will follow will be Epic and nothing like anything one has ever seen before. He has yet to accept that he has been ejected and not re-elected and that Joe Biden will be sworn in as US President on January 20, 2021

Greetings for the Season with a strong prayer and hope for incoming 2021 that the world is a better place to live in than it has been in this pandemic 2020

 

Cheers,

Gaurav Parikh, Managing Director

[email protected] +91-9820162597

  

Disclosure & Disclaimer

Jeena Scriptech Alpha Advisors Pvt Ltd (JSAAPL) is a SEBI Registered Entity offering Fundamental Direct Equity Research Analysis, Equity Portfolio Advisory, Training & Mentoring Services in Capital Markets

This Report is under our free access SCRIP STANDPOINT Module.It is for the personal information of the recipient/reader. We are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. It is our Viewpoint for general information purposes only. It does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individuals & other entities .We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither JSAAPL, nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without JSAAPL’s prior written consent. In case you require any clarification or have any concern, kindly write to us at: [email protected]

Daily Notifications as on 24th September 2020

https://www.bseindia.com/markets/MarketInfo/DispNewNoticesCirculars.aspx?page=20200924-49

1. Scrip code : 532508
Name : Jindal Stainless Limited
Subject : Clarification To The News Article Published Today Captioned As ‘SBICAP Trustee Company Acquired 56.17% Stake In Jindal Stainless.
Clarification to the news article published today captioned as ‘SBICAP Trustee Company acquired 56.17% stake in Jindal Stainless.

Daily Notifications as on 23rd September 2020

https://www.bseindia.com/markets/MarketInfo/DispNewNoticesCirculars.aspx?page=20200923-52

1. Scrip code : 526923
Name : Kumaka Industries Limited
Subject : Withdrawal Of Record Date For Bonus Issue
It is hereby informed that the Record Date of 24th September, 2020 for issue of Bonus Shares is withdrawn.

2. Scrip code : 533470
Name : Rushil Decor Limited
Subject : Pre-Issue Advertisement – Rights Issue
Saffron Capital Advisors Pvt Ltd (“Manager to the Offer”) has submitted to BSE a copy of Pre-Issue Advertisement published on September 18, 2020 for the Rights Issue of Rushil Decor Ltd (“the Company”).

3. Scrip code : 542773
Name : IIFL Securities Limited
Subject : Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Acquisition
This is to inform you that the IIFL Securities Limited (‘Company’), further to its present investments in the shares of Giskard Datatech Private Limited (‘Trendlyne’), has agreed to acquire additionalstake of Trendlyne i.e. 6.25% of the share capital on fully diluted basis from one of the existing investor in Trendlyne, pursuant to the terms of the Share Purchase Agreement. Post-acquisition, IIFL Securities Limited shall hold 20.55% of the share capital of Trendlyne on fully diluted basis. Pursuant to this Giskard Datatech Private Limited shall become an Associate of the Company. The details as required under SEBI (Listing Obligations and Disclosure Requirements) Regulations, 2015 read with SEBI Circular No. CIR/CFD/CMD/ 4/2015 dated September 09, 2015 are given in ‘Annexure A’ to this letter.